As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum gets tighter and tighter
Betdata.io ..the ex-Mayor is once again favourite to succeed TMay ..and TMay becomes a 28% chance to go this year Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned
Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…
As Trump’s legal troubles mount punters now make it a 34% chance that he’ll win WH2020
A good bet but which way? If it wasn’t for Brexit we’d be doing several threads a week about the US and particularly the prospects for Trump as the investigations appear to be getting closer. With the Mueller probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians during the 2016 campaign coming to a head it’s highly likely that we could see a lot of activity on Trump survival betting markets in the coming days and weeks. This…
BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Remainers and Leavers are in for surprises
In the previous article I highlighted how UK politicians have become so entrenched in their insular debate that they are effectively ignoring the significant changes sweeping Europe. One can argue that our MPs primary focus has become to smash the other side rather than look at what is best for the country. So perhaps they should take some time to look beyond these shores and see how the politics are lining up. REMAINERS Congratulations! We are staying in! Enjoy the…
BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put Humpty together again.
In the first of a two part series, Alanbrooke looks at our relationship with the EU. As the Brexit debate rolls on the recent ruling by the ECJ Advocate General that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 brings a new angle to proceedings. Suddenly it is a lot easier to stay in. The uncertainty around how to stay in the EU and under which terms looks a lot clearer and in some ways simpler. So set aside the mechanics of…
The first months of a Corbyn government
It’s objectively clear that there is a genuine possibility of a Corbyn government within months, possibly even weeks. That might be after an election, or it might be simply that the Conservatives lose the will to govern: there is a limit to how long governments can function with every vote at risk of failure, and yielding to a minority Labour government which is also subject to hostile majorities at every turn may seem a lesser evil. But there’s been very…
Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs reject the deal makes TMay’s task even harder
EU WILL negotiate if TMay loses Tuesday's Commons Brexit vote, says former EU head Prodi https://t.co/6EHH57jHdv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2018 This is about identity not the economy Tomorrow’s Observer is carrying an interview with former EU President, Romano Prodi, suggesting that Brussels will be ready to negotiate further if, as is expected, MPs vote down TMay’s deal on Tuesday. The prime minister has, of course, used the consequences of the EU not being ready to offer more…
Is France the next to fall to populism?
How far do the Yellow Vest protests go? Emmanuel Macron was always an unlikely revolutionary. Graduate of the ENA, high-flying civil servant, investment banker with Rothschilds, and later Minister of Finance and the Economy: his was the model of an insider’s path to power. And yet En Marche was a revolution of sorts. Despite Macron’s own background, his election was in its own way a rejection of the status quo. His style, however, was never fitted to that role –…