On the eve of the critical Mississippi senate election Trump’s approval ratings plummet

On the eve of the critical Mississippi senate election Trump’s approval ratings plummet

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Meanwhile the Mueller investigation gets closer Tomorrow sees the final chapter in this year’s midterms with the runoff for the Senatorial place in Mississippi. Today the president is attending two mass rallies in different parts of the state in the hope of shoring up his core vote ahead of the election. This is one that Republicans should really hold. It is in a solid “red state” and the expectation is that the party will be able to see off a…

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The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite

The bookies open the Commons deal betting making rejection the odds on-favourite

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But read the terms of the market After yesterday’s historic agreement attention now turns to whether the House of Commons is going to accept what Mrs May has agreed with the EU. Several bookies have markets up at all of them with opening odds that the deal will be rejected. Betway has it at 1/3 that this will be the outcome and also that Theresa May is just 10/11 to be replaced during 2019. Betfair has launched what I think…

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Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

Monkey’s paw. Delivering on the referendum campaign promises

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Voters overwhelmingly now remember only two arguments being made in favour of Brexit before the referendum: curb immigration & more money for the NHS. pic.twitter.com/6bmcd3Tvwk — Andrew Cooper (@AndrewCooper__) February 9, 2018 In the end, Theresa May has been more faithful to the referendum mandate than most Leave advocates. In 2016, the Leave campaign focussed on just two things: diverting the EU contributions into the NHS and scaring the public into believing that millions of Turks were poised to invade. It succeeded….

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The Telegraph leading on May’s TV Corbyn debate plan

The Telegraph leading on May’s TV Corbyn debate plan

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At least she’s taking the initiative This reminds me very much Tony Blair in the period leading up to the Iraq War. That, it will be recalled, saw massive demonstrations and Commons revolts but in the end the UK joined the US in going to war. The hardline Brexiteers would have been in a stronger position now if they’d put the grunt work in and had had an alternative plan. Anyway another week begins. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

After an historic morning in Brussels the betting remains that Brexit will happen on time & TMay will survive until at least 2019

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The uncertainties remain I’m taking profits on my TMay surviving 2018 bet because I think there’s just an outside chance that she could quit if the Commons votes against her plan. That would happen before Christmas. One thing that’s happened during her premiership is that ultimately she’s won just about all the main votes on Brexit. Things might look bleak now but is Labour really going to risk being tarred with having made a no deal exit to actually happen?…

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Betting on Tuesday’s final midterms showdown – the Mississippi senatorial run-off

Betting on Tuesday’s final midterms showdown – the Mississippi senatorial run-off

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The contest that’s evoking look backs to the Civil War It might be 3 weeks since the US midterm elections but there is a lot still to be settled. One of the interesting features from a British perspective is that some States seem to take an enormously long time to actually count the votes and not all the California seats in the house have been resolved yet. Meanwhile in the state of Mississippi with its long history of difficult race…

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Get ready for possibly the Xmas TV event of the year – May v Corbyn on the Brexit deal

Get ready for possibly the Xmas TV event of the year – May v Corbyn on the Brexit deal

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Number 10 so confident of May’s knowledge of the withdrawal agreement that they are considering challenging a Corbyn to a debate on it ahead of the meaningful vote on the 12th of December https://t.co/lnkGQ03DIT — James Forsyth (@JGForsyth) November 24, 2018 Would Corbyn agree? According to ‘James Forsyth in the Sun: “May herself is confident about selling her deal. She knows the withdrawal agreement backwards. Her copy of it is marked up with reference tabs and she relishes mocking Corbyn…

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A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real action

A second referendum is a dangerous distraction to the real action

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Brexit is not in trouble because of the lack of a mandate Brexit Day is now just 125 days away, or less than 18 weeks, if you prefer (and of those, you can discount Christmas). The extent of the discussion of a second referendum is therefore a measure of the desperation of both those who want to stop Brexit and those dissatisfied with how it’s going. That desperation is understandable. Brexit – in a legal sense – now looks a…

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