How the Brexit vote, a VoNC and the FTPA could create Christmas chaos Poldark is not a documentary. As with many a period drama, it captures in the mirror as much of a picture of the era in which the adaptation was made as that in which it’s set. That’s not just true of the characters and their actions but of the world around them. To take one example, the ease and comfort with which they appear to nip up…
A spectre is haunting Parliament – the spectre of a new referendum. On Tuesday, Parliament voted to allow itself to amend any back-up plan that the government brought forward in the event that its own deal was defeated in the meaningful vote next week. As things stand, defeat in that vote looks inevitable at present. The odds on a #peoplesvote or fresh referendum or re-ferendum or whatever you want to call it have risen sharply as a result. A fresh…
Aux armes citoyens! or at least put on your yellow hi-vis. In the last month, 50 years after the explosion of 1968, the French are once again taking to the streets. Whereas Mai 68 was a cocktail of demands for a freer more open society, Decembre 18 is more a cry of anger about a stagnant standard of living. France is increasingly struggling to satisfy its citizen’s aspirations. In the post war world France progressed rapidly during Les Trente Glorieuses the…
With the political process of the UK leaving the EU completely dominating the headlines the latest YouGov brexit tracker has unwelcome news for those who want to follow the referendum result. The figures are in the chart above. 49% believe that in hindsight it was wrong to vote to leave the EU with 38% saying it was right. The question has been asked several times a month by YouGov in exactly the same form since the referendum in 2016 and…
Punters now think..2019 GE now MORE likely UK LESS likely to leave EU on March 29th A second Brexit referendum MORE likely Charts once again based on latest trades on the Betfair exchange shown as a percentage probability and derived from Betdat.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
At 50/1 a good bet? These are quite extraordinary times and one of the “stars” to have emerged has been the Attorney General, Geoffrey Cox – someone who first came to many people’s attention when he introduced TMay at October’s CON conference. I thought he did brilliantly yesterday handling what was a very difficult issue for the government and no doubt will be seeing more of him later. He’s not someone who has been mentioned much as a prospective CON…
Betdata.io With so many big things happening in UK politics as the March 29 EU exit deadline gets nearer one of they key betting markers is surely “Will the UK leave the EU as planned on March 29th next year?”. The chart above shows the moves on Betfair over the past month. It strikes me that the current betting price that it will happen of 54% is an understatement giving the machinations that would have to happen in order for…
UK government may have been in contempt of Parliament by not publishing Brexit legal advice, Commons Speaker rules https://t.co/osk18Kg8GY — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 3, 2018 Bercow said there was 'an arguable case that a contempt has been committed’ and an emergency debate will be held first thing on Tuesday.https://t.co/ulxYTOyGgK — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) December 3, 2018