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BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 1 Europe has changed – We can’t put Humpty together again.

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the first of a two part series, Alanbrooke looks at our relationship with the EU. As the Brexit debate rolls on the recent ruling by the ECJ Advocate General that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 brings a new angle to proceedings. Suddenly it is a lot easier to stay in. The uncertainty around how to stay in the EU and under which terms looks a lot clearer and in some ways simpler. So set aside the mechanics of…

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The first months of a Corbyn government

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It’s objectively clear that there is a genuine possibility of a Corbyn government within months, possibly even weeks. That might be after an election, or it might be simply that the Conservatives lose the will to govern: there is a limit to how long governments can function with every vote at risk of failure, and yielding to a minority Labour government which is also subject to hostile majorities at every turn may seem a lesser evil. But there’s been very…

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Prodi’s assertion that the EU will negotiate further if MPs reject the deal makes TMay’s task even harder

8/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

EU WILL negotiate if TMay loses Tuesday's Commons Brexit vote, says former EU head Prodi https://t.co/6EHH57jHdv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2018 This is about identity not the economy Tomorrow’s Observer is carrying an interview with former EU President, Romano Prodi, suggesting that Brussels will be ready to negotiate further if, as is expected, MPs vote down TMay’s deal on Tuesday. The prime minister has, of course, used the consequences of the EU not being ready to offer more…

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Is France the next to fall to populism?

8/12/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

How far do the Yellow Vest protests go? Emmanuel Macron was always an unlikely revolutionary. Graduate of the ENA, high-flying civil servant, investment banker with Rothschilds, and later Minister of Finance and the Economy: his was the model of an insider’s path to power. And yet En Marche was a revolution of sorts. Despite Macron’s own background, his election was in its own way a rejection of the status quo. His style, however, was never fitted to that role –…

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EU and Whose Army?

7/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

There is no subject that will more rapidly inflame the jowls of a Euroskeptic than that of the EU Army. It is often employed as the trump card that will instantly and irrevocably end all discussion of further European integration. The basis of this antipathy has never been fully established but seems to be founded, in the first instance on misguided fealty to NATO and, in the second, to the exceptionalist view that no other European nation than the British…

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The curtain-raiser to Tuesday’s vote – Monday’s ECJ ruling on whether Article 50 can be revoked

7/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With exquisite timing the European Court of Justice will give its verdict in the article 50 case at 8am on Monday morning just a day before the big vote in House of Commons on the deal that would seal Britain’s exit from the EU. The court will rule whether or not the UK can revoke its decision in March 2017 to give notice of its plan to leave. We’ve already had a hint of the way this might go with…

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Remember this from June 23/24 2016 – the final 12 hours on the Brexit referendum betting markets

6/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As the polls closed punters rated Remain as a 93.5% chance With Brexit totally dominating the political scene at the moment I thought it might be useful to look back to the night of June 23rd 2016 when the referendum results came in and how the betting markets reacted. Just before the polls close the then UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, conceded defeat. YouGov published a poll taken during the day showing with a clear lead and news of these figures…

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Nunc dimittis: Theresa May’s exit approaches

6/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

“Sovereign Lord, as you have promised, you may now dismiss your servant in peace.” What is Theresa May’s premiership for? She was chosen by her party to effect Brexit and she has applied herself with determination to the task ever since. She spent the first months whipping the Leave faithful into a fervour, convincing them that she was on their side. Thus we learned that Brexit was Brexit and that she wanted a red white and blue Brexit. An effigy…

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