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Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

11/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country – and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 11, 2018 Masses of speculation about the numbers going in – lots of people hoping the 48 has been reached, but not clear –…

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New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

11/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest There’s a new YouGov/QMUL poll London Mayoral poll just out that has Sadiq Khan on 55% against just 27% for his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey. The voting system, it will be recalled is based on the supplementary vote so that a contender needs to win 50% only first round to be sure of victory. If indeed at the 2020 election Khan ends up according to the poll then he will secure…

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Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

11/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

SNP General Election target seats Election Polling LAB’s going to struggle to win the next GE unless there’s a rapid improvement in Scotland Last night Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP would back a Commons no confidence motion against the government if one was tabled by Labour. I’d suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and her team would not be asking for another election now unless it was pretty confident that it would do as well or even better than the 35 Scottish…

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How people would feel if the government cancelled Brexit & Britain stayed in the EU?

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Trying to measure the “betrayal effect” Interesting polling out today from YouGov which could just become increasingly important. My initial reaction is that the 24% saying they’d feel betrayed is much lower than I’d have thought and puts into context some of the assertions from the ERG gang as they try to argue for a hard Brexit. That such a smallish percentage say they’d feel berated if Brexit got cancelled does not quite fit with some of the rhetoric that…

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As the big vote gets delayed the betting on 2nd referendum gets tighter and tighter

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io ..the ex-Mayor is once again favourite to succeed TMay ..and TMay becomes a 28% chance to go this year Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The betting markets now make it a 61% chance that Brexit won’t happen on March 29th as planned

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Could this make it easier persuading hardline MPs? This morning’s ruling by the ECJ that Article 50 can be revoked unilaterally changes the Brexit Debate at a critical time with MPs due to vote on the deal tomorrow evening. The reaction of punters has been that the UK leaving the EU as planned on March 29th as planned is less likely. Currently it is now a 61% chance that this will not happen. On December 5th the Betfair exchange had…

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As Trump’s legal troubles mount punters now make it a 34% chance that he’ll win WH2020

10/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A good bet but which way? If it wasn’t for Brexit we’d be doing several threads a week about the US and particularly the prospects for Trump as the investigations appear to be getting closer. With the Mueller probe into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians during the 2016 campaign coming to a head it’s highly likely that we could see a lot of activity on Trump survival betting markets in the coming days and weeks. This…

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BACK TO THE FUTURE – Part 2 The past is a foreign country – Remainers and Leavers are in for surprises

9/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the previous article I highlighted how UK politicians have become so entrenched in their insular debate that they are effectively ignoring the significant changes sweeping Europe. One can argue that our MPs primary focus has become to smash the other side rather than look at what is best for the country. So perhaps they should take some time to look beyond these shores and see how the politics are lining up. REMAINERS Congratulations! We are staying in! Enjoy the…

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