I rather like this betting market which asks which of the two events will happen first – Theresa May ceasing to be Prime Minister or the UK actually leaving the EU. With uncertainties over both events this is quite a good match. My guess as we get closer to the March 29th article 50 deadline that this will see a fair bit of activity and no doubt the leave EU price will move to the favourite slot if the Theresa…
You can see fuller details from the poll in this Survation video. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Fiona Onasanya: Peterborough MP guilty in speeding case – Could be by-election in seat gained by LAB from CON at GE17https://t.co/TetDWtgYmR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 The last two general elections in Peterborough where the LAB MP has been found guilty of perverting the course of justice pic.twitter.com/6ebLldWPdx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 What appears to be a very interesting by-election is in prospect following the conviction this afternoon of the Peterborough MP. She has been…
A newly obtained document shows President Donald Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Russia, despite his attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming on Sunday the document was never signed. https://t.co/FqppeMkkVa pic.twitter.com/yZyTiRMYs5 — Cuomo Prime Time (@CuomoPrimeTime) December 19, 2018 With the Russian collusion investigation continuing to dominate US politics CNN has revealed overnight a letter of intent signed by Mr Trump in 2015 on the plan to build a Trump Tower…
I’ve just come across an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which explains very clearly why the Northern Ireland border is such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the intransigence of the Irish government not the trickery of the European Union. It is, put bluntly, because the UK…
YouGov/People’s Vote At the weekend when this came out I was a bit nervous about circulating details without having seen the full form of the question that was asked and the breakdown of the data. Well this is now available and above we see a snapshot of the main question and responses. I think the wording of the two options is fine but I am quite surprised by the change it brought to voting intentions. What must be worrying to…
It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister. Last week as the Betdata.io chart shows the money moved to the former mayor and former foreign secretary who has hired Lynton Crosby to run his leadership campaign, Mr Johnson. That’s evaporated but he’s still favourite though there are four or five others…
Sammy Wilson of DUP and Rees Mogg both confirm on record they’ll back PM in a confidence vote if Labour gets its debate — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 17, 2018 https://twitter.com/wyattd/status/1074757287766622208 How has Corbyn managed to turn a No Confidence motion in the Tories into a case study into why he should not be allowed anywhere near power? — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 17, 2018 Imagine being the one with the job of explaining all this stuff to Corbyn. https://t.co/j1UxcXHsdw…