It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

It looks as though there could be by-election in an ultra marginal gained by LAB from CON at GE17

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Fiona Onasanya: Peterborough MP guilty in speeding case – Could be by-election in seat gained by LAB from CON at GE17https://t.co/TetDWtgYmR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 The last two general elections in Peterborough where the LAB MP has been found guilty of perverting the course of justice pic.twitter.com/6ebLldWPdx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2018 What appears to be a very interesting by-election is in prospect following the conviction this afternoon of the Peterborough MP. She has been…

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CNN reveals document on Russian tower deal signed by Trump contradicting what his lawyer’s been saying

CNN reveals document on Russian tower deal signed by Trump contradicting what his lawyer’s been saying

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A newly obtained document shows President Donald Trump signed a letter of intent to move forward with negotiations to build a Trump Tower in Russia, despite his attorney Rudy Giuliani claiming on Sunday the document was never signed. https://t.co/FqppeMkkVa pic.twitter.com/yZyTiRMYs5 — Cuomo Prime Time (@CuomoPrimeTime) December 19, 2018 With the Russian collusion investigation continuing to dominate US politics CNN has revealed overnight a letter of intent signed by Mr Trump in 2015 on the plan to build a Trump Tower…

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Why the Northern Ireland border has been such a difficult issue

Why the Northern Ireland border has been such a difficult issue

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I’ve just come across an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which explains very clearly why the Northern Ireland border is such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the intransigence of the Irish government not the trickery of the European Union. It is, put bluntly, because the UK…

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The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll

The detail of the YouGov “LAB would slip to 3rd place behind the LDs ” poll

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YouGov/People’s Vote At the weekend when this came out I was a bit nervous about circulating details without having seen the full form of the question that was asked and the breakdown of the data. Well this is now available and above we see a snapshot of the main question and responses. I think the wording of the two options is fine but I am quite surprised by the change it brought to voting intentions. What must be worrying to…

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Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up

Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up

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It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister. Last week as the Betdata.io chart shows the money moved to the former mayor and former foreign secretary who has hired Lynton Crosby to run his leadership campaign, Mr Johnson. That’s evaporated but he’s still favourite though there are four or five others…

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With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB’s confidence move will fail

With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB’s confidence move will fail

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Sammy Wilson of DUP and Rees Mogg both confirm on record they’ll back PM in a confidence vote if Labour gets its debate — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 17, 2018 https://twitter.com/wyattd/status/1074757287766622208 How has Corbyn managed to turn a No Confidence motion in the Tories into a case study into why he should not be allowed anywhere near power? — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 17, 2018 Imagine being the one with the job of explaining all this stuff to Corbyn. https://t.co/j1UxcXHsdw…

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Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

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As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader then clearly he has a good chance of becoming, at some stage, prime minister. The above active betting market is not about that but who is going to step into Theresa May shoes when she stands aside. Probably the most significant political news affecting this market over the past week has been the statement by her that she will not fight the next general election as Conservative leader. That means that it is…

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The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

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And ordinary voters are beginning to give her credit The week before Christmas and the PM looks set to have another uphill task once again this afternoon facing yet again a marathon grilling by MPs after she reports on last week’s abortive mission to Brussels. Her position is very straightforward. The referendum outcome must be honoured but she has been determined to do it in a manner that causes the minimum of damage to the economy. The deal that she…

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