Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

Even if Labour secures an early election it is hard to see how the party wins It

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Corbyn needs CON converts which isn’t happening The main objective of Labour, we are told, during this period of extreme uncertainty over Brexit is to secure an early General Election. To do that it will need to win enough backing for a confidence motion that defeats the government that is not rescinded within two weeks. The MP totals for each party make that very difficult except if some means can be created for the DUP’s 10 MPs to back Labour…

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No Leader of the Opposition has rated even nearly as badly as Corbyn and become Prime Minister. An analysis into the satisfaction ratings of leaders of the opposition

No Leader of the Opposition has rated even nearly as badly as Corbyn and become Prime Minister. An analysis into the satisfaction ratings of leaders of the opposition

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In the final piece of three, Corporeal looks at the satisfaction ratings of Leaders of the Opposition The Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition is a position of great responsibility and impotence. It is traditionally the delicate art of attention grabbing, agenda setting, holding the government to account, and providing an inspiring alternative vision for government on the major issues of the day. Or if all that fails (unkind commentators might suggest that not all the holders of the…

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Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. An analysis into Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings

Theresa May is more popular through the first thirty months of her tenure than Thatcher and Cameron. An analysis into Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings

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In part two of three, Corporeal looks at Prime Ministerial satisfaction ratings Prime Ministers are, of course, towering figures in public life. Pillars of UK society that are respected and loved in equal measure and enter government with the goodwill of the nation behind them. Then with fairly predictable regularity they slip from the hearts of the public and in some cases end up getting burnt in effigy. Current Situation: The most recent result for Theresa May came in mid-December…

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The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s

The May government’s net satisfaction ratings are on par with Thatcher’s and Cameron’s

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Only the Blair government’s net average ratings were better Governments are pretty much always unpopular. The anonymous grinding mills of policy and administration rarely inspire enthusiasm, much less devotion. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver once joked that the US Congress was less popular than Satan, a claim that as far as I can find hasn’t been tested by any pollster (perhaps something for Lord Ashcroft to consider during his American travels). In 2013 during a government shutdown the great American public…

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Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

Trump’s Shutdown: Who blinks, who loses?

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How long can neither side budge with 400,000 federal employees furloughed? Thirteen months to the first elections in the primary campaigns for next year’s US presidential vote might seem a long way off when so much can and will happen in the UK over the next thirteen weeks, never mind months. That, however, is because Brexit is exceptional. Lifting our eyes a little, the partial federal shutdown resulting from the stalemate between Trump and Congress over funding for his Wall…

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Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

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NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will" https://t.co/1VcGLtfnJl — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) January 3, 2019 Senior ministers are urging May to set a departure date soon after March 29th to convince rebels a new leader can take over the next stage of Brexit…

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Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

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Expect fewer caucuses & big states coming earlier As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee. Although the primaries will start off, as usual, with the caucasus in Iowa and the full primary in New Hampshire the overall structure is going to be very different this time which could effect the…

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Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

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The start of trend as we get closer? The paper, the National, it should be pointed out is a strong supporter of the SNP but having said that this does raise a real issue in the one part of the UK where the Tories had real success at GE2017. Also today we’ve had this from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus which looks grim for LAB north of the border. As I’ve said repeatedly LAB has to recover in Scotland if it…

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