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What happens when the anti-Brexiteers are united – those who want it are split

9/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This week’s latest Westminster scorecard : The Executive NIL Parliament TWO By any standards the events that we are seeing at Westminster over the process of the government’s EU Exit legislation are completely unprecedented. Generally parliament is very much there to follow what the executive rules and Westminster’s structures and rules are designed to achieve that end. The two defeats for the government that we’ve seen yesterday and today are designed to eat away some of the executive’s power in…

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Layla Moran now becomes favourite to become next LD leader

9/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Poll after poll has shown that the will of the people is now in favour of a People's Vote with the option to stay in the EU. So whose side is the Prime Minister on – Putin's or the people's? #PMQs pic.twitter.com/u3Q8SwF9by — Layla Moran (@LaylaMoran) January 9, 2019 The LD MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, Laylan Moran, made a point at PMQs this lunchtime that I’m surprised hasn’t been taken up by other remainers – the pro-Brexit comments…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?

9/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members – who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @ProfTimBale Tweet

After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

8/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io How Parliament Voted: Amendment 7 (Yvette Cooper Amendment) pic.twitter.com/QRk3Ok02bM — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 8, 2019 The Commons defeat for the government with the almost unprecedented cross-party nature of the vote has seen punters being even less convinced that the UK will leave the EU as planned on March 29th. The election Maps Tweet above shows the party breakdown which looks set to be a good indicator for future votes. Quite where this goes now is hard to…

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Trying to work out what is Britain’s European Strategy

8/1/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Other than, arguably, joining the US in the second Iraq war in 2003, the worst post-war strategic mistake made by any British government was the decision not to join what became the EU in 1958 at the start. Had it done so it would have played a leading role and would have helped shape it into an organisation with rules, aims and a culture with which it could have been much more comfortable. Rather than being seen as a foreign institution,…

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In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

8/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

US Map showing Trump approval ratings Jan 2017 US Map showing Trump approval ratings Dec 2018 It is a sign of just how long PB has been around that next year’s White House Race will be the 5th that we’ve covered on the site since its foundation in March 2004. These are massive betting events something that is helped by the build-up of primaries towards the nominations of then of course the battle itself. With just under two years to…

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Coming up at 2100 GMT on Channel 4 – Brexit the movie

7/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-YM8FnWZAU#action=share PBers in the UK, no doubt, will be glued to their TVs Join the discussion while it happens here. I’ve little doubt it will cause controversy and maybe shape perceptions of what happened. It, of course, comes at the most critical time for the Government as it desperately tries to secure the agreement of the Commons on the Brexit deal. The writer, James Graham, made a big name for himself a few years back with his National Theatre play…

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How the EU has bungled Brexit

7/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As Britain is going through the final stages of a psychiatric breakdown over Brexit, not much attention is being given to our surroundings. Time to take some slow shallow breaths and look around. How does the world look like from the EU? The EU looks pretty ropey just now. At every level it is enervated. Its Commission is serving out its final months, a lame duck administration. The European Parliament is divided and set to get more so. The national governments are just as weak. Germany…

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