Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…
Donald Trump has just announced that the Government shutdown is over. This means that the 800k government workers who have not been paid since before Christmas will now be paid. He’s agreed a 3 week period and is clearly hoping that he can get agreement on the funding of his wall. This comes on the day that the shutdown was starting to impact seriously on US civil flights with New York’s Le Guardia airport amongst others being affected. The shutdown…
“FBI. Open the door.” Watch exclusive CNN footage of the FBI arresting longtime Trump associate Roger Stone. Stone has been indicted by a grand jury on charges brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. https://t.co/IWQToxEDhG pic.twitter.com/qXDtpL8pjN — New Day (@NewDay) January 25, 2019 This is all getting very close to the President The big news this lunchtime which could have big implications for WH2020 and Donald Trump is that his long-standing associate, Roger Stone, has been arrested by the FBI in…
Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…
Brexit betting round-up Betting continues to be running at a high level on all aspects relating to Brexit. Mostly of the markets have stayed pretty consistent over the past few days days. The only one to buck this trend has been the second referendum betting. The chart shows how this is shifted down and this and, undoubtedly, has been affected by the latest reported positioning of Mr Corbyn about what Labour would or would not do. However much the polls…
More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches….
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at polling around a no-deal Brexit to see if commentators suggesting that it is the most popular outcome with the public are right. Also featured on this week’s show is a new report by UK in a Changing Europe, which covers a host of topics on Brexit including support for a second referendum and how Brexit identity appears to be trumping party identity. You can find the report here. Listen…
What’s least unpopular might be the way forward Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics and a regular guest on the PB/PollingMatters podcast has just produced the above survey for Bloomberg which finds that of the main options facing the UK leaving with the deal has the highest level of net acceptability. My chart above is based on his data. He notes: “Most polling on the Theresa May’s Brexit deal until now has focussed on which outcome to the process the…