politicalbetting.com – Page 735 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

“TMay exit” level-pegging with “UK leaving the EU” on the which’ll happen first betting market

28/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This Betfair exchange market is one of of my current favourites because it combines what is overwhelmingly the big UK political issue for many years, Brexit, with the future of TMay. On the face of it the UK actually leaving the EU appears a better bet to happen first than TMay stepping aside. For before Christmas she got immunity for a year after surviving the confidence vote amongst CON MPs. This compares with the UK’s EU exit date being enshrined…

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With 60 days to go the uncertainty is greater than ever

28/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Ahead of the crunch parliamentary week punters don’t think the March 29 exit will happen One of the good things about betting trend charts is that they are a way of seeing how opinions, at least of those who ready to risk money betting on politics, are developing over time. We are today exactly 60 days before the Article 50 deadline expires when the UK is due to leave the EU. Yet it is still far from clear whether…

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Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

27/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

EXCLUSIVE Remain ministers said PM must commit to securing Brexit deal within 2 weeks if she is to avoid resignations over no deal during conference call TONIGHT A dozen ministers on call including Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, David Gauke & Caroline Nokes https://t.co/J7JP22x1LO — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 27, 2019 The pressure’s now coming from those who backed remain The Telegraph is reporting details of at telephone conference call earlier this evening by about a dozen ministers who are pro-European….

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Sherrod Brown, victor in Ohio last November, looks increasingly like a good bet for WH2020

27/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://youtu.be/dNiVkG6Kh88?t=156 I’ve had quite a few long shot bets on the next White House Race but the one I am becoming increasingly confident about is Sherrod Brown Who last November held his Ohio senate seat by a margin of 6%. What makes this striking is that at WH2016 Trump took the state with a margin of 8 points. If anyone can win the rust belt back for the Democrats then it’s Brown. So far he’s not formally put his hat…

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Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

26/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn1VxaMEjRU I’m going to go all Godwin on you. Sorry. When people talk about the causes of World War Two, they often mention how Hitler was emboldened by his early success remilitarising the Rhineland without any real consequence, showing that the Treaty of Versailles was violable. This was not, however, the first occasion on which the settlement of the First World War was set aside by the losers. At 100 years’ distance, Germany was the loser of the First World…

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Trump facing right-wing backlash for caving in on the shut down

26/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Suddenly Trump finds himself under attack from those his loudest backers. Coulter blasts Trump over shutdown deal: 'Biggest wimp ever to serve as president' | TheHill https://t.co/TPOXnHh9tA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2019 Yesterday has raised doubts over his WH2020 bid My biggest long-term bet for a long time has been that Trump will will not be his party’s nominee at WH2020. This has been my Mueller collusion probe bet on the basis that at some stage there’d be…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

26/1/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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Nancy Pelosi 1 Donald Trump 0

25/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Donald Trump has just announced that the Government shutdown is over. This means that the 800k government workers who have not been paid since before Christmas will now be paid. He’s agreed a 3 week period and is clearly hoping that he can get agreement on the funding of his wall. This comes on the day that the shutdown was starting to impact seriously on US civil flights with New York’s Le Guardia airport amongst others being affected. The shutdown…

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