New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

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Getting on for half of GE2017 LAB voters view Corbyn unfavourably Only minutes after I published the previous thread bemoaning the fact that we see very few leader ratings surveys in British polls up popped YouGov with its latest favorability numbers. The main figures for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are in the screenshot above. To my mind the most important cross-break is the party split from the 2017 General Election. What do those who voted for you last time…

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Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

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Opinium By comparison TMay’ drop from a net minus 13% to minus 20% One of the features of conventional British political analysis is that almost all the focus is on voting intention for an election that might not take place for another few years with hardly any attention being given to leader approval ratings. This is so different from the US where leader ratings dominate the political polling narrative. I was quite impressed ahead of last November’s American mid-term elections…

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Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

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Let’s take stock of where we are right now. Most of the leading chains of supermarkets, together with KFC, Pret A Manger and McDonald’s, have warned that a no-deal Brexit would put Britain’s food security at risk. The Health Secretary has confirmed that medicines are going to be prioritised over food, which is simultaneously very sensible and absolutely nuts. He has also confirmed that a lot more needs to be done to safeguard supplies of medicines, with over half of…

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Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

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Jeremy Corbyn: "None of that was very clear to me, I don't know about anybody else" Labour leader is unimpressed by Theresa May's answer on "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in #Brexit deal#PMQs updates: https://t.co/1SWYMqgzLk pic.twitter.com/VmJW0qvPhy — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 30, 2019 If we were to predict the outcome of this afternoon’s historic meeting face-to-face meeting between TMay and Mr Corbyn based on what happened at today’s PMQs it is hard to see this taking things very…

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Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

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Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th. The Tweet exchange at the top between Phil Collins of the Times and YouGov’s Marcus Roberts sums up simply the reasoning. Essentially TMay’s long term strategy of getting her deal through could succeed because it becomes the only option on the table. Her trip to Brussels is not likely to produce the change that the…

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Article 50 Exit Day – Minus 59 and everything is now put back to February 13th

Article 50 Exit Day – Minus 59 and everything is now put back to February 13th

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But could this mean getting closer to a deal? My initial take on this eve. ‘Though parliament rejected no deal, we’re now closer to it than ever’ https://t.co/VmDWCYfhfl — Anand Menon (@anandMenon1) January 29, 2019 MPs have voted for a Brexit solution that has already been rejected by the EU https://t.co/Z5aqhm44TV — BuzzFeed News UK (@BuzzFeedNewsUK) January 29, 2019 I am starting to fear that MPs will continue not making decision right until the evening of March 29th when the…

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TMay’s problem is that the vast majority of voters, including leavers, are not happy bunnies about Brexit

TMay’s problem is that the vast majority of voters, including leavers, are not happy bunnies about Brexit

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Are tonight’s votes going to improve or worsen this? Looking at this latest YouGov polling it really is quite remarkable how people feel about brexit. I suppose a lot of it is just simply exhaustion with each days news being totally dominated by the issue, something that has been going on for years it seems. The breakdown above is not surprising for remainers though I’d have expected a more positive view from leavers. This has become so complex that a…

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The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

The ERG, the new Militant tendency?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWLN7rIby9s Last year I called Jeremy Corbyn the new Maggie.  I don’t suppose that will be appearing on the side of a Labour election battle bus any time soon. A pity.  The Twitterstorm that would have followed would have been such fun. So let’s see if I can be even more provoking this year. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Derek Hatton have a surprising amount in common: their Catholicism (Jacob modelling himself on Waugh’s Bridey, Derek coming from the cradle Irish Catholic strand,…

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