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Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

1/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The one-time Democratic nominee favourite still pondering WH2020 Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman from El Paso in Texas, has not really been heard from since pushing Ted Cruz very close in the Senate race last November in a race that received huge amount of media attention. His campaigning and fundraising ability to mobilise a very large volunteer force and raise a huge amount of cash all led to speculation that he might be the one who would take on Trump…

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The indications are that the Article 50 exit might have to be put back

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Cabinet ministers who believe it may be necessary to extend A50 include to finalise deal include: Jeremy HuntSajid JavidAndrea LeadsomDavid GaukeAmber RuddLiam FoxDamian HindsGreg Clark Interestingly they span Brexit divide. There’s no consensus yet but could soon be — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 31, 2019 This impacts of the “Will Brexit happen on Schedule” betting Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Getting on for half of GE2017 LAB voters view Corbyn unfavourably Only minutes after I published the previous thread bemoaning the fact that we see very few leader ratings surveys in British polls up popped YouGov with its latest favorability numbers. The main figures for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are in the screenshot above. To my mind the most important cross-break is the party split from the 2017 General Election. What do those who voted for you last time…

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Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Opinium By comparison TMay’ drop from a net minus 13% to minus 20% One of the features of conventional British political analysis is that almost all the focus is on voting intention for an election that might not take place for another few years with hardly any attention being given to leader approval ratings. This is so different from the US where leader ratings dominate the political polling narrative. I was quite impressed ahead of last November’s American mid-term elections…

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Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

30/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Let’s take stock of where we are right now. Most of the leading chains of supermarkets, together with KFC, Pret A Manger and McDonald’s, have warned that a no-deal Brexit would put Britain’s food security at risk. The Health Secretary has confirmed that medicines are going to be prioritised over food, which is simultaneously very sensible and absolutely nuts. He has also confirmed that a lot more needs to be done to safeguard supplies of medicines, with over half of…

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Ahead of this afternoon’s May-Corbyn meeting the two leaders get warmed up with a spiky PMQs exchange

30/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Jeremy Corbyn: "None of that was very clear to me, I don't know about anybody else" Labour leader is unimpressed by Theresa May's answer on "alternative arrangements" to replace the Irish backstop in #Brexit deal#PMQs updates: https://t.co/1SWYMqgzLk pic.twitter.com/VmJW0qvPhy — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) January 30, 2019 If we were to predict the outcome of this afternoon’s historic meeting face-to-face meeting between TMay and Mr Corbyn based on what happened at today’s PMQs it is hard to see this taking things very…

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Why after last night the value Brexit bet is on the UK leaving the EU on March 29th

30/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Overnight I have been amongst a number of punters betting on the Betfair Brexit market that the UK WILL leave the EU on March 29th. The Tweet exchange at the top between Phil Collins of the Times and YouGov’s Marcus Roberts sums up simply the reasoning. Essentially TMay’s long term strategy of getting her deal through could succeed because it becomes the only option on the table. Her trip to Brussels is not likely to produce the change that the…

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Article 50 Exit Day – Minus 59 and everything is now put back to February 13th

29/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But could this mean getting closer to a deal? My initial take on this eve. ‘Though parliament rejected no deal, we’re now closer to it than ever’ https://t.co/VmDWCYfhfl — Anand Menon (@anandMenon1) January 29, 2019 MPs have voted for a Brexit solution that has already been rejected by the EU https://t.co/Z5aqhm44TV — BuzzFeed News UK (@BuzzFeedNewsUK) January 29, 2019 I am starting to fear that MPs will continue not making decision right until the evening of March 29th when the…

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