In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

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It’s possible the UK could end up with a Labour Brexit To me the biggest development of the day was the response by Donald Tusk to the Labour proposal for Brexit. The details envisage a softer brexit then Theresa May’s plan but because of the numbers in the Commons there’s a good chance that this is what could actually be agreed. If so that will be remarkable and something and it’s almost without precedent. Labour could claim that this was…

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Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

Punters start backing O’Rourke again after he tells Oprah he’ll make his mind up by the end of the month

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And Biden’s plans remain a mystery The big developments in the WH2020 race have been an appearance by one-time Democratic nomination favourite, Beto O’Rourke on Oprah’s V show and reports on BuzzFeed that the man toping the nomination polling, 76 year old Joe Biden, has made no contact at all with the states that hold their primaries first. O’Rourke, who seemed to to be in a strong position after running Ted Cruz close in last November’s Texas race, had barely…

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A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Corbyn’s strategy shift seems to being having an impact One of the most volatile current political betting markets is on the year of the next general election. This is ultra-sensitive , clearly , in a situation like at the moment where the governing party does not have a majority and is totally divided on the big issue of the day. This was accentuated by the main Labour strategy being to use TMay’s…

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“Being seen to back Brexit worse for LAB than invading Iraq”

“Being seen to back Brexit worse for LAB than invading Iraq”

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A poll shown to Momentum and shadow cabinet members shows 'backing Brexit would be worse for Labour than Iraq invasion', @Peston has learnthttps://t.co/8YtByDu6Od pic.twitter.com/DiuTxVLPYp — ITV News (@itvnews) February 6, 2019 Tonight ITV News is carrying a report that a private poll that has been seen by Momentum suggests that LAB seen to be backing Brexit would be worse for the party than the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It is reported that it was commissioned by the Transport Salaried Staffs’…

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The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

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Today our most important task is to prevent a no deal #Brexit. I hope that tomorrow we will hear from PM @theresa_may a realistic suggestion on how to end the impasse. https://t.co/ko9UGhtaJd pic.twitter.com/Rm9fNXwyks — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely. — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 It is extraordinary that…

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The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

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In a very uncertain political environment in the UK one thing we can predict with some certainty is that these few months in British politics will be the focus of massive amount of study and examination in decades to come. How did we get to where we are and most of all was the PM’s approach the right one? I just wonder how she is going to be regarded by history. She was a Remainer she took the view on…

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Yet another Democrat Senator prepares to fight for the WH2020 party nomination

Yet another Democrat Senator prepares to fight for the WH2020 party nomination

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange For those not following this on a daily basis the fight to become the Democratic nominee gets even more complicated whenever you look at. The latest news is that Minnesota Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar is heading to Iowa a sure sign that a presidential bid is in prospect. Other Democratic party senators to have declared are Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand. On top of that the old-timer duo…

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Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for her

Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for her

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This month’s Brexit Confidence tracker poll shows 80% of UK adults disapprove of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations, the highest figure recorded since this tracker poll began in November 2016https://t.co/k55Qbr2hff#Brexit #Poll #TheresaMay #BrexitDeal pic.twitter.com/uYyjcPWD3J — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations? Approve 20% (-5) Disapprove 80% (+5) n=2014, 1st-3rd Feb Online — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019…

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