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A 2019 general election no longer favourite in the year of next GE betting

7/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Corbyn’s strategy shift seems to being having an impact One of the most volatile current political betting markets is on the year of the next general election. This is ultra-sensitive , clearly , in a situation like at the moment where the governing party does not have a majority and is totally divided on the big issue of the day. This was accentuated by the main Labour strategy being to use TMay’s…

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“Being seen to back Brexit worse for LAB than invading Iraq”

6/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A poll shown to Momentum and shadow cabinet members shows 'backing Brexit would be worse for Labour than Iraq invasion', @Peston has learnthttps://t.co/8YtByDu6Od pic.twitter.com/DiuTxVLPYp — ITV News (@itvnews) February 6, 2019 Tonight ITV News is carrying a report that a private poll that has been seen by Momentum suggests that LAB seen to be backing Brexit would be worse for the party than the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It is reported that it was commissioned by the Transport Salaried Staffs’…

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The Tusk Tweets that suggest TMay is facing an uphill task

6/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Today our most important task is to prevent a no deal #Brexit. I hope that tomorrow we will hear from PM @theresa_may a realistic suggestion on how to end the impasse. https://t.co/ko9UGhtaJd pic.twitter.com/Rm9fNXwyks — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 I've been wondering what that special place in hell looks like, for those who promoted #Brexit, without even a sketch of a plan how to carry it out safely. — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) February 6, 2019 It is extraordinary that…

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The resilient PM ploughs on to March 29th and her running down the clock strategy might just work

6/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In a very uncertain political environment in the UK one thing we can predict with some certainty is that these few months in British politics will be the focus of massive amount of study and examination in decades to come. How did we get to where we are and most of all was the PM’s approach the right one? I just wonder how she is going to be regarded by history. She was a Remainer she took the view on…

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Yet another Democrat Senator prepares to fight for the WH2020 party nomination

5/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange For those not following this on a daily basis the fight to become the Democratic nominee gets even more complicated whenever you look at. The latest news is that Minnesota Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar is heading to Iowa a sure sign that a presidential bid is in prospect. Other Democratic party senators to have declared are Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand. On top of that the old-timer duo…

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Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for her

5/2/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This month’s Brexit Confidence tracker poll shows 80% of UK adults disapprove of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations, the highest figure recorded since this tracker poll began in November 2016https://t.co/k55Qbr2hff#Brexit #Poll #TheresaMay #BrexitDeal pic.twitter.com/uYyjcPWD3J — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations? Approve 20% (-5) Disapprove 80% (+5) n=2014, 1st-3rd Feb Online — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019…

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Leading Corbynista calls for Labour to introduce US-style primaries to select candidates

5/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will party members and the unions be happy about giving up their selection powers? In a Tweet last night one of Labour’s most prominent and leading Corbyn backers, Aaron Bastani, called for what would be a radical change in the way the party selects candidates for Parliament and other elected offices. Instead of the current system which puts just about all the power with Trade Unions and members he wants US style primaries. In the US there are different systems…

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Trump’s approval now ratings far worse far worse than at the midterms when the Dems gained 41 house seats

4/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

RealClearPolitics The big political polling numbers that get most attention in US politics are the President’s approval ratings and these are seen to be good predictors of electoral outcome. Thus the 10% approval deficit that Trump had ahead of the November midterms was enough for pundits to predict that the Republicans would lose the House by some margin. That is what happened. Since then we’ve had the government shutdown when 800k federal employees went without pay for nearly 5 weeks,…

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