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Vince Cable stepping down as LD leader. Layla Moran the opening favourite to succeed

14/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On the eve of the Lib Dem Spring Conference in York the leader since GE2017, Twickenham MP Vince Cable, has announced tonight that he’s stepping thus opening up a leadership contest. This has not come as a surprise and it was always envisaged that his period as leader would be to bridge the gap following Tim Farron’s exit after GE2017. Two women head the betting. Layla Moran, who took Oxford West and Abingdon from the Tories two years ago is…

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Punters make it a 26% chance that Brexit won’t happen before 2022 – if at all

14/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Doubts rise following the failure to agree a deal With MPs continuing with the voting on the amendments to the article 50 motion the chart above features a Betfair betting exchange market that I have not put on the site before. This is when will be the actual date of the UK’s exit. If you do not believe it is going to happen then you bet on the not before 2022 option…

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Osborne’s Standard has surely got this right – TMay is in office but not in power

14/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Today’s ?@EveningStandard?: PM is in office but not in power – as rebels take control, EU offers delay and Chancellor again suggests compromise deal pic.twitter.com/BAbPHLSf9c — George Osborne (@George_Osborne) March 14, 2019 As we move into the most difficult fortnight for a prime minister in decades the former Chancellor and now editor of The London Evening Standard, George Osborne, has come out with the above front page about Theresa May. He’s right. A situation where ministers feel able to ignore…

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In all of this 2019 remains betting favourite for “year of next general election”

14/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io. chart based on Betfair exchange How punters are seeing the dramatic Brexit moves Given the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit it is understandable why an early General Election is relatively highly rated by punters. The chart above shows the betting over the past 6 months and although 2019 has been quite a bit higher, at 45%, it still retains its position as favourite even at 37%. Under the provisions of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act the next election is due…

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Has the ERG won?

13/3/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The sight of long-standing opponents of the EU voting on Tuesday against leaving the EU because May’s Withdrawal Agreement was not “proper Brexit” must have infuriated those MPs who voted for the deal despite not wishing to leave the EU. Ken Clarke, for instance. What a “proper Brexit” is will probably end up being the Schleswig-Holstein question of our time. (“The Schleswig-Holstein question is so complicated, only three men in Europe have ever understood it. One was Prince Albert, who…

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And so MPs move on to vote against leaving the EU with no deal

13/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Assuming that passes we move onto extending A50 So after last night’s excitement today’s focus is a new Commons vote at 7pm on ruling out the UK leaving the EU with no deal. Then we’ll get tomorrow’s Article 50 extension move. Assuming that both motions will pass from tomorrow the effort will be made to extend the Article 50 deadline. The question then will be put to the EU which will need all remaining EU members to agree. The overwhelming…

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Nancy Pelosi says Trump shouldn’t be impeached + other US developments

13/3/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ten days to PB’s 15th birthday the latest US political betting developments While everything in the UK has been focussed on Brexit, the Commons votes, and the looming Article 50 deadline of March 29th there’ve been big political betting developments in Trump’s USA. For almost within days of his election in November 2016 betting markets were opened on Trump’s possible impeachment and there’ve been many markets on when he would go. But he’s still there although weaker as a President…

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Something has changed. For the first time I can see how Brexit is delayed and/or revoked and it is all thanks to the ERG

12/3/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Cartoon by Marf I’ve been betting on the assumption of leaving the EU at the end of the month with No Deal for quite some time for the following reasons Brexit: It’s the law that we exit on the 29th of March 2019 No matter how many times MPs vote to say they are opposed to No Deal they need to pass primary legislation to stop No Dea and I think they’ve run out of time to do so. Donkeys…

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