If the 117 went for him he’d make the membership ballot One of the big question marks over Boris’ leadership hopes has been whether he’d be able to secure the support of enough fellow MPs in the first rounds of voting to be able to secure a place in the final two names that go to the membership. The former mayor and ex-Foreign Secretary who has just had a haircut has never had a sizeable base amongst CON MPs who…
Chart betdata.io But if punters could see this why not Moggsy’s ERG? Yesterday was a huge political betting day with two million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May. It’s quite useful to look back and see how the markets performed against the actual result and as can be seen the lowest it ever dropped to on the Betfair Exchange for Mrs May was within the first hour at 9.40am when it…
Immigration was one of the major issues in the referendum debate. The influx of several million Europeans coming to a country which had made no serious effort to accommodate its biggest ever increase in population changed the political landscape and enabled in no small way the decision to leave the EU. Since the vote the immigration issue has appeared to become less important. In part this is because immigration from Europe has reduced in the last two years. Improved wages at…
The Tory Brexit dilemma goes on Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out. The question of whether this is representative of CON members I don’t know but this is very much the impression that CONHome tries to project. Whether this will influence MPs as they prepare to cast their ballot in the confidence vote is hard to say. ComHome…
But could the betting markets have it wrong? Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May. So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job. The…
So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place. Under the rule changes introduced when William Hague was Conservative leader this is the mechanism for ousting someone who has ceased to retain the confidence of the parliamentary Party. If she is defeated then there will have to be a new leadership election at a very…
Raab back again as CON leader favourite 2018 as TMay exit year jumps from 16% to 36% chance Second referendum steady as a 44% chance All betting data from Betdata.io and based on the Betfair exchange. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet