If there is no Brexit who would Leavers blame?
YouGov put it to the test If Brexit doesn't happen TMay will always be able to blame the ERG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2019
On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange What’s happened on the £3.3m main Brexit market As we get closer to Brexit day the betting interest grows and on the Betfair exchange a total of £3.3m has already been wagered on this one Brexit market alone. I cannot recall a non-election market which has attracted this level and, of course it will grow and grow as we get nearer 11pm three weeks on from today. The extraordinary changes in the…
What might the Tories learn from Labour
The Tories might well look at Labour’s current travails over anti-Semitism and sigh with relief. “At least we’re not as bad as that.” They would be wise not to be so complacent. Anti-Semitism is not confined to Corbyn’s Labour or to the Left in general. The attacks on Soros by some Tory-leaning papers, even Mrs May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech, echoed some pretty standard tropes about rootless disloyal cosmopolitan people somehow undermining good old native British culture. And there have been enough…
Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen
US Senate report on Russia's role during the UK referendum campaign https://t.co/pdXbW1WW30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 New YouGov polling finds just 12% now think that the UK will leave the EU three weeks on Monday with a deal. pic.twitter.com/dA6Os4hBAx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 If we stay in the EU, responsibility will be shared by Tory purist Brexiters and Labour MPs who said they'd respect the referendum — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 7, 2019
If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…
Hobson’s choice – the issues facing unhappy LAB MPs
How far does loyalty stretch? How far should it stretch? Loyalty to persons who have behaved wrongly is misplaced loyalty but is more common than it should be. Still, even in the absence of misbehaviour there is no one easy answer to this, especially for anyone who has voluntarily joined a group because they believed in its mission, in what it was trying to do. The question is even more difficult for members of political parties given that these are,…
Fringe concerns. Why all the focus on anti-Semitism in the Labour party?
Imagine, if you will, that Labour sweep to power under Jeremy Corbyn. There is much that an avowedly socialist government would wish to do. No doubt it would look at nationalising key industries. It would open up the spigots of the Treasury, letting its funds gush into any number of spending channels. It would look to make irreversible redistributions of wealth. What it would not do, however, is seek to redraw the boundaries of the Middle East – it…
With both CON and LAB having an interest in the Peterborough recall petition then the chances are that it will succeed
How the mechanics of this new process work The Commons Research department has just issued a new paper on how recall petitions actually work. This is now an integral part of the electoral process and there a strict rules for their operation, campaigning and spending limits. The returning officer for the constituency involved is deemed the “Petition Officer” and follows a strict set of instructions. This is, of course, a process that could involve an incumbent MP being forced out…