Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the Conservatives will form the next government

Conservative approach. The seats that will decide whether the Conservatives will form the next government

Link to the map above. Ready for another general election? The last one was less than two years ago but with a hung Parliament dealing with a hugely controversial central question, the threat of another constantly hangs over us. Personally, I very much doubt whether we will see one before the due date in 2022 but as any Boy Scout would tell you, we would do well to be prepared. In theory there should be a boundary review implemented in…

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Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

Surely an Article 50 extension should be used to allow a proper investigation into the legitimacy of Leave’s victory

From the Washington Post – The more we learn about Brexit, the more crooked it looks https://t.co/rmejtfcSzK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2019 The UK cannot take such a giant step while questions are still unanswered One of the thing’s that’s been quite extraordinary since June 2016 is, with one or two major exceptions, that the UK media has been reluctant to delve into questions over how the campaign operated. The result is now that the UK is edging…

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Meanwhile, Labour is redefining the domestic consensus

Meanwhile, Labour is redefining the domestic consensus

The debate on police numbers this week demonstrates the changing terms of debate Brexit has created many political casualties already. Whether directly, like David Cameron, or indirectly, like UKIP, the vote to Leave the EU has cut a swathe through the personnel, policies and priorities of the political classes. We can expect many more to fall victim to the process before it ends. However, where there’s chaos, there’s opportunity. Jeremy Corbyn (ironically, the last surviving GB party leader from the…

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On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

On the betting markets a March 29th UK Brexit down from a 71% chance to 16% in just five months

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange What’s happened on the £3.3m main Brexit market As we get closer to Brexit day the betting interest grows and on the Betfair exchange a total of £3.3m has already been wagered on this one Brexit market alone. I cannot recall a non-election market which has attracted this level and, of course it will grow and grow as we get nearer 11pm three weeks on from today. The extraordinary changes in the…

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What might the Tories learn from Labour

What might the Tories learn from Labour

The Tories might well look at Labour’s current travails over anti-Semitism and sigh with relief. “At least we’re not as bad as that.” They would be wise not to be so complacent. Anti-Semitism is not  confined to Corbyn’s Labour or to the Left in general. The attacks on Soros by some Tory-leaning papers, even Mrs May’s “citizens of nowhere” speech, echoed some pretty standard tropes about rootless disloyal cosmopolitan people somehow undermining good old native British culture.  And there have been enough…

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Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen

Tonight’s Brexit news on how Russia sought to influence the referendum & YouGov on what voters think will happen

US Senate report on Russia's role during the UK referendum campaign https://t.co/pdXbW1WW30 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 New YouGov polling finds just 12% now think that the UK will leave the EU three weeks on Monday with a deal. pic.twitter.com/dA6Os4hBAx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2019 If we stay in the EU, responsibility will be shared by Tory purist Brexiters and Labour MPs who said they'd respect the referendum — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) March 7, 2019

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

If Brexit doesn’t happen on the March 29th Article 50 deadline then it might not happen at all

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Mrs May should have declared her deal a triumph As we move closer to the critical votes next week on Brexit the betting markets remain uncertain as to what is going to happen. The chart above shows a market that we’ve not featured on PB before – when will the UK actually leave the EU. If Theresa May gets her deal through then the chances are that the March 29th deadline could…

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