Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up

Boris’s CON leadership betting spurt appears to have run out of steam and others are moving up

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It is inevitable with all the political moves relating to the prime minister that there is a lot of betting focus at the moment on who will succeed her both as CON leader and also Prime Minister. Last week as the Betdata.io chart shows the money moved to the former mayor and former foreign secretary who has hired Lynton Crosby to run his leadership campaign, Mr Johnson. That’s evaporated but he’s still favourite though there are four or five others…

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With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB’s confidence move will fail

With the DUP and Moggsy backing Theresa it looks as though LAB’s confidence move will fail

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Sammy Wilson of DUP and Rees Mogg both confirm on record they’ll back PM in a confidence vote if Labour gets its debate — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) December 17, 2018 https://twitter.com/wyattd/status/1074757287766622208 How has Corbyn managed to turn a No Confidence motion in the Tories into a case study into why he should not be allowed anywhere near power? — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) December 17, 2018 Imagine being the one with the job of explaining all this stuff to Corbyn. https://t.co/j1UxcXHsdw…

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Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

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As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader then clearly he has a good chance of becoming, at some stage, prime minister. The above active betting market is not about that but who is going to step into Theresa May shoes when she stands aside. Probably the most significant political news affecting this market over the past week has been the statement by her that she will not fight the next general election as Conservative leader. That means that it is…

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The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

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And ordinary voters are beginning to give her credit The week before Christmas and the PM looks set to have another uphill task once again this afternoon facing yet again a marathon grilling by MPs after she reports on last week’s abortive mission to Brussels. Her position is very straightforward. The referendum outcome must be honoured but she has been determined to do it in a manner that causes the minimum of damage to the economy. The deal that she…

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The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the game to trap the Conservatives

The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the game to trap the Conservatives

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Board games are always a good source of arguments. There seem to be as many views on how to play Monopoly as families. Some place all fines in the centre, to be collected by anyone who lands on Free Parking. Some don’t allow rents to be collected in Jail. Views differ on what is to be done with the properties of bankrupt players. It is important to establish the rules in advance if you want to avoid unseemly rows. Parliamentary…

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Theresa May’s next move

Theresa May’s next move

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  Theresa May’s great political skill, the driving force behind her career, has been the ability to keep her head down. The virtue of ducking out of the firing line is an important one in British politics. When promotion often comes through dead man’s shoes there is a delicate art to making sure others get hit by the flak, of walking through the food fight and coming out only mildly custard-stained. When the other leading figures in your party destroy…

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Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

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New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit https://t.co/WcnsPVRxJi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2018 The S Times is reporting a YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, showing that support for LAB could fall from 36% to 22% if it helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May. In these circumstances, the…

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After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

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While we have been almost totally focused on Brexit in the UK in Washington things are getting even worse for the president who is facing a whole series of probes relating to the 2016 campaign. This week his former attorney, Mike Cohen, was sentenced to 3 years for his part including campaign finance violations by seeking to arrange payoffs to women that Trump was said to have been associated with. Cohen has also gone public in his attacks on Trump’s…

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