If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

Comments 581 Comments

At one stage in my career I used to advise Betfair on the precise market rules for its political markets. These are critically important because an exchange like Betfair stands in between those who are laying bets and those who are backing and needs to have something to fall back on should there be a disagreement. So anytime you want to make a political bet it is important for your own protection to check the market rules. The currently heavy…

Read More Read More

Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options

Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options

Comments 1 Comment

So a Shopping Centre on the Isle of Man just had their Christmas decorations done… ? pic.twitter.com/4s8MMsd9zn — Liam Rice (@li4miom) November 18, 2018 Christmas comes ever earlier each year. When I was a child, we didn’t hear anything about it until 1 December, when Radio 1 broke out the Christmas tracks. Contrast that with this year. Aldi launched their Christmas advert with Kevin the carrot on 9 November. John Lewis unveiled Elton John for their Christmas campaign on 15 November. And poor Theresa…

Read More Read More

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

Comments 2 Comments

Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10. Well 18 months on she is still there and I now approach the end of the year with completely the opposite betting position. My money is on the Prime Minister being the Prime Minister and Tory leader at the end of the year. This is a…

Read More Read More

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What do the public think of Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. What do the public think of Theresa May’s Brexit deal?

Comments 367 Comments

After an eventful week in Westminster, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh sit down to discuss public opinion on Theresa May’s Brexit deal and her future asking ‘what happens now?’ You can listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MattSingh_ Tweet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Sir Graham Brady’s comments today make me think backing Theresa May not to be ousted this year is the best bet

Comments 1 Comment

BBC 5 Live ?@JPonpolitics? Sir Graham Brady, 1922 Chairman, on letters – and lies pic.twitter.com/udTFfVr7z4 — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 BBC @JPonpolitics Sir Graham Brady I/v I don’t support a no confidence vote at this time, says Sir Graham pic.twitter.com/uE74yQT1Lm — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 18, 2018 https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1063925003325005825 The comments from Sir Graham Brady & the ERG in the Sunday Times makes me think the ERG don't have the numbers to oust Mrs May. The ERG…

Read More Read More

Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

Betting on just how many candidates are on the first ballot paper of the next Tory leadership election

Comments 564 Comments

A mixture of ambition, ego, a low nomination threshold, and a very democratic voting system allows a lot of Tories to stand for leader. Since the current Tory leadership rules were first used in 2001 the highest number of candidates to be on the first ballot paper is five, in 2001 and 2016, so I can see why people may wish to back the 8/15 on there being fewer 7 candidates, however I think the value is betting on there…

Read More Read More

The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

Comments 419 Comments

Problems building on the DUP's home patch over its approach to TMay's Brexit deal https://t.co/qFJd5AhNnA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2018 The assumption that the DUP will automatically oppose TMay’s Brexit deal might not be the case as pressure is building up amongst the Province’s farmers many of whom support the party. The Observer is reporting that the powerful Northern Ireland Farmer’s Union has told Arlene Foster’s party that its 10 Westminster MPs should vote for the deal. The…

Read More Read More