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Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other than YouGov has recorded a CON lead

1/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 280 Comments

All the others have had LAB leads or were tied There’s a new poll reported in the Times today from YouGov which has a Conservative lead albeit a reduced one of 2%. It has not yet been added to the Wikipedia table featured above of every published poll. When looking in detail at the list one thing is very striking and that is that the Conservatives leads are almost totally from YouGov. All the other polls bar one in early…

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As 2018 comes to an end Marf’s Cartoon of the year

31/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 203 Comments

We’ve not seen a Marf cartoon on PB for some time but this is her end of the year drawing for the Jewish Chronicle. Thanks Marf. It is fun. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Elizabeth Warren’s WH2020 annoucement is bad news for Bernie

31/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 160 Comments

They both appeal to similar segments of the Dems base The big WH2020 news today is the announcement from Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, that she’s putting her hat into the ring for the 2020 Democratic nomination She’s declared that she’s establishing an exploratory committee — the legal precursor to a run. This comes as other candidates, including several of her fellow senators, were reported to be making made final preparations for their own announcements. The news follows speculation that the…

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Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at GE17 is no guarantee that it’ll happen again

31/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 372 Comments

LAB’s got to stop looking at next time through the prism of 2017 The extraordinary performance at the last election of Labour continues to dominate thinking about the next one with an assumption in many quarters that because the party was able to come from a huge poll deficit to within 2.5% then the same will happen again. Labour activists rightly point to the fact that during a general election the party gets more equal media coverage and that is…

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A few general election constituency betting markets for your perusal

30/12/2018 TSE Comments 341 Comments

Ladbrokes have put up what I think are the first constituency markets for the next general election, I’ve always looked fondly at these markets, especially after the 2015 general election where there was a lot of profit in backing the Tories in the English marginals, and the SNP everywhere in Scotland. Chingford & Woodford Green and Richmond Park I think it is worth looking at both Greater London seats together. Demographics and Brexit are working against the Tories in London…

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Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

30/12/2018 TSE Comments 328 Comments

Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities. The current government is a minority government, kept in power through the offices of the DUP. Right now, however, the DUP are not happy….

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PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

29/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 366 Comments

With brexit being just about the only political story in the UK during 2018 it is inevitable that there has been a lot of betting attention. In the charts above I feature two markets. First whether Britain will actually leave the EU as planned on March 29th and second on the chances of a second referendum. As can be seen in the top chart punters saw Brexit not happening on the due date as favourite till the final week in…

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After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

29/12/2018 David Herdson Comments 432 Comments

Get ready for the most dramatic year in UK politics for decades 2018 was boring, wasn’t it? No leadership change among the three main parties for the first time in four years, only the third year this decade without a general election or a major referendum, and not even the distraction of a big foreign election (the best on offer was the Italian election, which also produced the only change among the G7 leaders). Except of course it wasn’t. True,…

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