Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

Given TMay’s said she’ll be out before the next election it’s hard to see why Corbyn remains favourite for next PM

As long as Corbyn remains Labour leader then clearly he has a good chance of becoming, at some stage, prime minister. The above active betting market is not about that but who is going to step into Theresa May shoes when she stands aside. Probably the most significant political news affecting this market over the past week has been the statement by her that she will not fight the next general election as Conservative leader. That means that it is…

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The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

The magnificent resilience of TMay ploughing on relentlessly against all the odds

And ordinary voters are beginning to give her credit The week before Christmas and the PM looks set to have another uphill task once again this afternoon facing yet again a marathon grilling by MPs after she reports on last week’s abortive mission to Brussels. Her position is very straightforward. The referendum outcome must be honoured but she has been determined to do it in a manner that causes the minimum of damage to the economy. The deal that she…

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The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the game to trap the Conservatives

The gilded cage. How the DUP are using the new rules of the game to trap the Conservatives

Board games are always a good source of arguments. There seem to be as many views on how to play Monopoly as families. Some place all fines in the centre, to be collected by anyone who lands on Free Parking. Some don’t allow rents to be collected in Jail. Views differ on what is to be done with the properties of bankrupt players. It is important to establish the rules in advance if you want to avoid unseemly rows. Parliamentary…

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Theresa May’s next move

Theresa May’s next move

  Theresa May’s great political skill, the driving force behind her career, has been the ability to keep her head down. The virtue of ducking out of the firing line is an important one in British politics. When promotion often comes through dead man’s shoes there is a delicate art to making sure others get hit by the flak, of walking through the food fight and coming out only mildly custard-stained. When the other leading figures in your party destroy…

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Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

Tonight’ big Brexit polling news – LAB could slip to third place if it helped CON pass Brexit

New YouGov poll finds that LAB would drop to behind the LDs if the party helps the Tories to pass Brexit https://t.co/WcnsPVRxJi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2018 The S Times is reporting a YouGov survey of 5,000 voters, commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign, showing that support for LAB could fall from 36% to 22% if it helped the Tories to pass a compromise deal with Brussels like the one advocated by Theresa May. In these circumstances, the…

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After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

After a terrible week for the White House Trump drops to just a 61% chance in the WH2020 nomination betting

While we have been almost totally focused on Brexit in the UK in Washington things are getting even worse for the president who is facing a whole series of probes relating to the 2016 campaign. This week his former attorney, Mike Cohen, was sentenced to 3 years for his part including campaign finance violations by seeking to arrange payoffs to women that Trump was said to have been associated with. Cohen has also gone public in his attacks on Trump’s…

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No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May

She can’t please all the (necessary) people all the time Not only is Theresa May a bloody difficult woman, she’s also a bloody difficult woman to shift. The ERG, with all their customary Keystone Cops planning, proved once again this week that when it comes to continuing her mission, the PM has a Terminator-like resilience to her and that it takes rather more than saying nasty things in posh voices to blow her off course. Their failure, however, was not…

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Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997 The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010 Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts. The Ipsos-MORI ratings have been used because these have been recorded at regular intervals since 1977. The proposition works for the only other LOTO to become PM since this polling started – Mrs. Thatcher. In the 1979 polls before the election she led the PM, James Callaghan,…

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