Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and the count takes place that evening

Tomorrow at 1800 the Peterborough recall petition closes and the count takes place that evening

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The parties are on standby for a by-election After what seems to be inordinately long period of time the Peterborough recall petition is drawing to a close and tomorrow night Fiona Onasanya will learn whether she can continue as an MP or not. Even if 6,967 (10% of the electorate) have signed that would not be the end of the matter for Onasanya. She would be able to stand in the ensuing by-election though not for Labour. While this has…

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The betting moves against Mayor Pete following accusations of sexual assault

The betting moves against Mayor Pete following accusations of sexual assault

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BREAKING: Media Darling Buttigieg Accused of Sexual Assault https://t.co/JDWZx8qmsf — Big League Politics (@bigleaguepol) April 29, 2019 Whatever the veracity his betting odds are going to move out Given the extraordinary media coverage that Mayor Pete has been getting I had been sort of expecting something like the above Tweet to emerge. Whatever the truth of these allegations I don’t know but it it is part and parcel of political campaigns that things like this do happen. My guess is…

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The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

The threat of Corbyn becoming PM is irrelevant unless LAB backs a second referendum

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There has to be a general election first and that means retaining remain support Lots of discussion ahead of tomorrow’s meeting of Labours National Executive Committee which will decide on the party’s policy on Brexit for the May 23rd euro elections. The big question is whether a referendum will be offered and under what terms. So far the leadership has managed skillfully to bypass this by mentioning a second referendum almost as a footnote in policy statements. That would need…

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Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

Leading pollster, Martin Boon, ex-ICM now of DeltaPoll, raises questions about current Brexit Euros polling

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There were a LOT of polls, including my own, that failed to notice. 2/? — Martin Boon (@martinboon) April 26, 2019 How much can we rely on polling for the Euros? The above was the start of a Twitter thread over the weekend from Martin Boon who has been a major figure in he British polling industry for several decades. He was with ICM and is now part of DeltaPoll. His Tweets raised questions on the mechanics of polling which…

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If there was a betting market on the first Tory MP defecting to the Brexit Party my money would be on Steve Baker

If there was a betting market on the first Tory MP defecting to the Brexit Party my money would be on Steve Baker

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Hey @LadPolitics can you put up a market on who will be the 1st Tory MP to defect to the Brexit Party? Want to back Steve Baker, story 2day 'Nigel is very smug at the moment & is 100% sure that there is at least 1 high-profile defection in the pipeline'https://t.co/5QD2GS4hMX — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 28, 2019 In today’s Sun on Sunday reports Tory MPs such as Lucy Allan, the MP for Telford, have openly tweeted encouragement for the Brexit Party,…

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Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

Will John Bercow leave his job as Speaker in 2019?

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This looks like the best way to get a 25% return in eight months. Earlier on this month I wrote a piece about the plans of Tory Leavers to try and oust John Bercow this week just gone, accurately I predicted they wouldn’t have the numbers to oust Speaker Bercow.  In that piece I bemoaned there were no Bercow exit markets but thankfully Paddy Power now have a market on whether Speaker Bercow will leave his job in 2019. For…

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Before we get too excited at this stage before the 2014 Euro elections Farage’s party was on 38% – 20 points ahead of Cameron’s Tories

Before we get too excited at this stage before the 2014 Euro elections Farage’s party was on 38% – 20 points ahead of Cameron’s Tories

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Wikipiedia table of polling for the May 2014 Euro elections Lots of polling excitement tonight with surveys showing UKIP with a apparently avery large lead over the Tories and level pegging with LAB when the samples were asked how they would vote in next month’s euro elections. It all looks a bit gloom and doom for the Tories but if you check back to what was happening at this exact point  5 years ago  UKIP were on 38%  with the…

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Bye-bye by-elections? Part 2. MPs who resigned their seats and stood in the ensuing by-election

Bye-bye by-elections? Part 2. MPs who resigned their seats and stood in the ensuing by-election

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In Part 1, I discussed how the reasons for triggering by-elections have changed since 1918. In Part 2, I will discuss in more detail the phenomenon (or lack) of MPs resigning and re-contesting their seats over principle or when they change party allegiance. In Part 1, I showed you the trends in both the number of and the reasons for Westminster by-elections over the last 100 years. Now, fast-forwarding to the present, just a couple of months ago, 11 MPs…

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