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Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomination contenders younger than 72yo Trump

11/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

While we have all been focused on the developments on Brexit there has been a lot of movement in the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House race. This starts the hot up in a few weeks when the first of the Dem Primary TV debate debates is held. The big sensation who has been making waves is the 37 year old mayor of a small city in Indiana, Pete Buttigieg who’s come from almost nowhere and…

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The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

11/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Still the same stalemate but now with added time A quick look across the Brexit related betting markets suggest that there has been relatively little movement given the developments last night. That might be because Theresa May didn’t get her very short extension and neither did the EU leadership get their longer one. A no-deal Brexit now rated at a 14% chance which is barely changed. That UK will hold EU elections in May is up 3% to 95% but…

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Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

10/4/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

BREAKING: EU leaders have agreed a delay to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, according to EU diplomats. Follow live updates here: https://t.co/iRW5ZC1LSF — Alan McGuinness (@Alan_McGuinness) April 10, 2019 Earlier on this evening it looked like the French were going to ensure a No Deal Brexit on Friday but the rest of the EU bypassed them like the Germans bypassed the Maginot Line in 1940. https://t.co/Y2xCxlceG4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2019 Per EU source. France…

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Telegraph piece backs 400/1 shot Mark Francois to be next CON leader

10/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Telegraph piece backs Mark Francois for leader https://t.co/pBOEsYH9Qd — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) April 10, 2019 On Betfair Exchange he is currently 400/1. I’ve wagered £2 at 402/1. In many ways from the extreme Brexiteers position you can see the logic in the position. Francois has kept totally to the faith without wavering but I’m not confident about my bet! Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ex-CON leader betting favourite, Javid, drops sharply amidst reports of plots to block him

10/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange A sign of the Tory Islamophobia crisis? As can be seen from the betting price chart six months ago the Home Secretary. Sajid Javid, was 6the favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader and prime minister Since then he has seen a steady deterioration in his position in the betting and over the last couple of days he’s moved down from an 8% chance to just 5%. Earlier in the week BuzzFeed…

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TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports continue of efforts to oust her

10/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

But she’s not going, surely, before the Euros? Given the fact that we could be seeing two separate sets of elections next month, the locals on May 2nd and the Euros on May 23rd it is hard to see how TMay a can be pushed out before then. In many way her challenges are not of her own making. It was her predecessor who committed the Tories to a referendum and the 51.9%-48.1% outcome was hardly a mandate for some…

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Not before 2022 or not at all now betting favourite for when Brexit happens

9/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange After another day of Brexit developments punters on the Betfair exchange now make 2022 or not all all the favourite as to when Brexit will happen. The chart shows the movements over the past months. But, as can be seen, the second half of 2019 is close behind. The actual rules of the market are: “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties…

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Divided they fall. Alastair Meeks on the European elections

9/4/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The 2019 Euro elections – not a contest I thought was going to require a British perspective. Yet here we are, taking at least one more curtain call. Last time Britain elected MEPs in the following numbers: UKIP 24 Labour 20 Conservatives 19 Green 3 SNP 2 Lib Dems 1 Plaid Cymru 1 DUP 1 Sinn Fein 1 UUP 1 UKIP tallied 26.6% of the vote to take first place on a turnout of just under 36%. It should be…

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