Kamala Harris – my WH2020 66/1 pick from two years ago – set to enter the race a week on Monday

Kamala Harris – my WH2020 66/1 pick from two years ago – set to enter the race a week on Monday

Now joint favourite for the Democratic nomination This is from my post under the heading “My 66/1 long-shot bet for the 2020 White House race: Democratic Senator Kamala Harris from California” from January 18th 2017 – two days before Donald Trump was inaugurated as President. “..With Trump’s inauguration taking place on Friday there’s been a flurry of betting activity on the newly elected Senator from California, Kamala Harris, for the next White House Race in 2020. This followed a lot…

Read More Read More

The economics of LICE. How do we deal with parasite taxation ?

The economics of LICE. How do we deal with parasite taxation ?

LICE – Luxembourg, Ireland, Channel Isles, Estonia – we could add others and play alphabet soup, but the basic premise is the same small countries which live well by diverting the tax revenues of their larger neighbours. These are parasites not in the derogatory sense but in the biological sense of entities which live off others. This is not new, tax havens have been around for centuries but largely as an irritant to those next door. However in the last two decades things…

Read More Read More

What happens when the anti-Brexiteers are united – those who want it are split

What happens when the anti-Brexiteers are united – those who want it are split

This week’s latest Westminster scorecard : The Executive NIL Parliament TWO By any standards the events that we are seeing at Westminster over the process of the government’s EU Exit legislation are completely unprecedented. Generally parliament is very much there to follow what the executive rules and Westminster’s structures and rules are designed to achieve that end. The two defeats for the government that we’ve seen yesterday and today are designed to eat away some of the executive’s power in…

Read More Read More

Layla Moran now becomes favourite to become next LD leader

Layla Moran now becomes favourite to become next LD leader

Poll after poll has shown that the will of the people is now in favour of a People's Vote with the option to stay in the EU. So whose side is the Prime Minister on – Putin's or the people's? #PMQs pic.twitter.com/u3Q8SwF9by — Layla Moran (@LaylaMoran) January 9, 2019 The LD MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, Laylan Moran, made a point at PMQs this lunchtime that I’m surprised hasn’t been taken up by other remainers – the pro-Brexit comments…

Read More Read More

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What LAB and CON party members think about Brexit?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University to discuss his research on Labour and Conservative Party members – who they are, what they think about Brexit and what this means for the future of British politics. Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @ProfTimBale Tweet

After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

After a dramatic day in the Commons punters on Betfair make it a 64% chance that the UK will NOT leave EU by March 29th

Betdata.io How Parliament Voted: Amendment 7 (Yvette Cooper Amendment) pic.twitter.com/QRk3Ok02bM — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) January 8, 2019 The Commons defeat for the government with the almost unprecedented cross-party nature of the vote has seen punters being even less convinced that the UK will leave the EU as planned on March 29th. The election Maps Tweet above shows the party breakdown which looks set to be a good indicator for future votes. Quite where this goes now is hard to…

Read More Read More

Trying to work out what is Britain’s European Strategy

Trying to work out what is Britain’s European Strategy

Other than, arguably, joining the US in the second Iraq war in 2003, the worst post-war strategic mistake made by any British government was the decision not to join what became the EU in 1958 at the start. Had it done so it would have played a leading role and would have helped shape it into an organisation with rules, aims and a culture with which it could have been much more comfortable. Rather than being seen as a foreign institution,…

Read More Read More

In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

In Jan 2017 Trump had net positive approval ratings in 38 US states – that’s now down to 21

US Map showing Trump approval ratings Jan 2017 US Map showing Trump approval ratings Dec 2018 It is a sign of just how long PB has been around that next year’s White House Race will be the 5th that we’ve covered on the site since its foundation in March 2004. These are massive betting events something that is helped by the build-up of primaries towards the nominations of then of course the battle itself. With just under two years to…

Read More Read More