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On the 2nd anniversary of TMay calling GE2017 fewer are predicting an early election now

14/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The betting chances of GE2019 drop 20% in just 14 days It was exactly two years ago that we were told that the PM would be making a statement in Downing Street. All sort of rumours were triggered and it was only when the lectern was moved into the street that people started guessing that she was about to go to the country. The giveaway was that the PM’s crest was not…

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A ridiculous spectacle, looking in detail at Julian Assange’s arrest.

14/4/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwkmtuz6q2g Assange’s arrest – his white beard, wink and ponytail giving him a very woke mixture of metrosexual man, cheeky rebel and Russian dissident – is the latest scene in a life made for film. Now, following a spell at Her Majesty’s pleasure (her prisons, in NI anyway, used to faeces-smearing prisoners unlike the bemused Ecuadorians bulk-buying extra-strong Cilit Bang) he faces the possibility of extradition to Sweden or the US to face charges of sexual assault and conspiracy to hack…

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Why I’m taking the 12/1 on the Tories polling under 10% in the European election

14/4/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The YouGov poll published yesterday showed the Conservatives polling 16% in the European election, Opinium had the Conservatives on 17% so it is worth analysing this market from Ladbrokes on what vote share the Conservatives will achieve. I’ll explain why I think the 12/1 is the best option. I) A polarised electorate and polarising election. This election will be seen as a de facto referendum on Brexit, Remainers and Leavers will want to utilise their vote to send a message on Brexit….

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The May 23rd Euro elections – how the pollsters did last time

13/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Wikipedia With, unless there’s deal with the EU before then, Euro elections taking place in the UK on May 23rd we are going to get a lot of polling on the elections that few expected to take place. As can be seen in 2074 the Tory share barely varied in the final three weeks while UKIP, then with Nigel Farage, bounced round quite a lot. A few polls had LAB ahead but the majority pointed to a victory for the…

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Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite

13/4/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

A 30-something gay small-city mayor should not be 14/1 to win WH2020 Precedent is a good guide but a bad determinant. To believe that something cannot happen because it hasn’t previously happened is to end up being unpleasantly surprised. It’s therefore possible that the Democrats could look past the current or former governors, senators and vice-president in order to select as their candidate someone who’s not just the mayor of a city the size of Chesterfield but who’s still in…

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Getting the MPs we deserve?

12/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot from Harris Tweed In a rare moment of PB agreement in a recent thread, Casino_Royale and Nick Palmer, himself a former MP, discussed the shallow gene pool which provides too many of our MPs, and the party and parliamentary processes which aim – not always successfully – to keep them in check. Strong whipping, party patronage and a lack of local competition in their seats mean too many members can enjoy a trouble- and blame-free life on…

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The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, gets his knuckles wrapped for a fake polling report

12/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In January Mr. Johnson wrote in his Telegraph column that: “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May ’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.” A reader…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

12/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months. Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi