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Oh the humiliation! CHUK not even listed as a runner on the Euros spread-betting markets

18/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

So much is going on in UK politics at the moment that it is hard to recall that just a month ago the new Party formed by breakaway CON and LAB MPs, Change UK, was talking about it taking over the Lib Dems. From reports at the time it considered itself to be the powerful force and were treating Cable’s party as almost supplicants in any relationship. The new grouping didn’t contest the local elections on May 2nd but their…

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Why Revoke is now very much on the table

18/5/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

May’s departure and a flight to the extremes aids stopping Brexit A zombie government will bring a zombie Withdrawal Agreement back to parliament next month, and in true zombie style, it will get bashed and still not really die. Ever since the first Meaningful Vote in January, when the government lost by well over 200 votes, Theresa May has been locked in a political vice where she couldn’t countenance No Deal, couldn’t accept No Brexit but couldn’t deliver any Brexit…

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Boost for Johnson in the first CON membership poll since TMay announced her exit timetable

17/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

? ? ? New YouGov poll of Tory members for @thetimes puts @BorisJohnson well out in front(Though he is also bottom choice for a sizeable group) – Johnson would prefer not to be frontrunner – Raab in strong position– Poor Hancock Loads more detail: https://t.co/HjTbrKZmS4 pic.twitter.com/MUQ5Ij1cS9 — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) May 17, 2019 His biggest hurdle’s still getting through the MPs round Quick off the mark we now have the first YouGov poll of CON members following the news that…

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The Ladbrokes 7/2 that the LDs will come top in London looks a good value bet

17/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Today’s YouGov/Times Euros poll with a 7k+ sample has LAB on 15% nationally below the LDs who are now second in the race. The Tories on 9% are fifth behind the Greens. All this should help the LDs underpin their claim to be the strongest anti-Brexit party in the three-way battle in England between them and CHUK and the Greens. In Scotland the strongest anti-Brexit party is the SNP and in Wales PC. Looking at the betting the Ladbrokes London…

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The Con-Lab Brexit talks are dead and the parties should say so

16/5/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The differences are unbridgeable and any deal unratifiable Like a sketch show parody of a Victorian dinner crossed with Weekend at Bernie’s, the negotiators in the Con-Lab Brexit negotiations have been determined to maintain the pretence that all is still well despite the talks having died some time during the soup course; it’s just that everyone is too polite to say so. That pretence has finally begun to break down as both the realities of the talks themselves and the…

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Following the firmer news on TMay’s exit Johnson declares that he’s running and moves to a 27% favourite in the betting

16/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So the CON backbenchers who have been unhappy with Mrs May’s handling of the brexit process have sort of got their way and there is agreed process for how she will go and when. The 1922 Chair Graham Brady summed up things like this:- “We have agreed to meet to decide the timetable for the election of a new leader of the Conservative party as soon as the second reading has occurred…

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The updated Wikipedia polling table for next week’s Euros

16/5/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

What is very marked is the high level of variation between the firm’s most recent surveys. Change UK are recorded as being in a range of 2-6% The Brexit Party from 26% to 34% LDs from 11% to 19% GRN from 6% to 11% The Tories are in a much narrower range of 10% to 15%. The possibly outlying figures from BMG might be down to the fact that in its poll the Euros voting intention was put first. With…

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The Conservative party sweepstake

15/5/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The last rites have not yet been spoken and already the heirs are gathered around the deathbed and stripping the rings off Theresa May’s fingers. The collective assumption of most Conservative MPs, which may yet be wrong, is that the Conservative role of party leader is shortly to fall vacant. Who might her replacement be? For all the difficulties that the role has, there is no shortage of volunteers. Many Conservative MPs look in the mirror, straighten themselves up, comb…

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