Those used to general elections in the UK and the drama of the exit poll coming out they might get a bit deflated to have reached 10 this evening to find the polls have closed and nothing is happening. We will have to wait until 10 p.m. on Sunday evening for the first results to come out. This is because of the strict rules about EU elections that no information on voting can be revealed until such time as as…
On this week podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh discuss the EU election polls and what happens next week. Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MattSingh_ Tweet
New @IpsosMORI Euros poll completed last night sees LAB trailing LDsBREX: 35%LD: 20%LAB: 15%GRN: 10%CON: 9%CHUK: 3%UKIP: 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2019 This is much closer to YouGov than other polls The pollster, Ipsos-MORI, has a long history of trying to be the publisher of the last poll before an election. It does this by finishing its fieldwork on the Wednesday evening and generally it is published in the London Evening Standard on the Thursday. With this…
With parts of her cabinet now in open revolt it is hard to see how even TMay can now survive. Today being election day at least gives her breathing space ahead of what has appeared likely for some time. The Tory obsession with Europe is devouring another leader. In many ways it would have been better for the party if the July 2016 leadership election had resulted in a leaver taking over the helm of the party though no doubt…
LAB between 25% or just 13% and BRX ranges from 27% to 37% The final polls on the eve of the 2019 Euros look very confusing and it is hard to find a clear picture. The Tories range from 7% to 14% while the LDs are polling between 12% and 19%. Only one on the list had any fieldwork taking place today the rest were all closed yesterday thus not picking up any late swing which we know can happen…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange One of the big political betting movements this afternoon has been on the timing of the next general election as can been from the chart. As far as I can see the reasoning is that TMay’s time at Number 10 is moving to a conclusion with much talk of a leadership contest before the summer break. The only problem is that a new PM and leader would face exactly the same challenges…
“Bollocks to Brexit” not harming the LDs Throughout the Euros campaign one pollster has been producing very different numbers from just about everybody else. That is YouGov which in its survey for the Times this morning finds that the Brexit party is on 37% with the Lib Dems on 19 and labour six points behind that on 13. Almost all the other firms have LAB maintaining a second place position and lower numbers for TBP. It is highly likely we…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Although the timing of Theresa May’s departure as prime minister and CON leader has yet to be confirmed there’s little doubt that we are very close to a party leadership election which will be unique. For the first time party members will be deciding on who should be the next Prime Minister. It should be recalled that previous CON leadership contests which have gone to the membership have been whilst the party…