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Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

8/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Who knows – the party could be choosing a future PM? So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site. Meanwhile there’s what’s described as an “informal survey” of LD members that got the last contested election in…

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Democratic voters are more fired up about WH2020 than Republicans ones which could be bad news for Trump

8/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By far the biggest global political betting event next year will be the White House Race and all the series of state primaries leading up to it. We have, of course, already started the TV debates for the Democratic nomination and a further round is scheduled for the end of the month. Until now all the PB focus has been on the Democratic nomination race and we’ve barely looked at the bigger picture – will Trump get a second term?…

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The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

7/7/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the middle ages, Timbuktu was fabulously wealthy. It controlled the gold trade and it had all the riches that you would expect from that. Mansa Musa, the sultan, had a fortune that you couldn’t dream away, you couldn’t wish away. The sultan, as a good Muslim, performed the hajj, making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Being fabulously wealthy as well as a good Muslim, he travelled with a retinue of 60,000 men. All along the way, he gave gold to…

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A 16/1 tip to start off your Sunday morning

7/7/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Graphics: top one is from Paddy Power, the bottom one is from Ladbrokes Why I’m backing Boris Johnson to receive between 80% to 89.99% of the vote. If the YouGov polling is accurate then Boris Johnson is going to win a landslide in the leadership contest, yesterday’s poll had him winning 74% to 26%. My view is that polling for these leadership elections is a lot easier for YouGov than most of the other political polling they carry out. The…

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If Boris wins then last month’s ComRes poll suggests a huge CON recovery is in prospect

6/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Telegraph June 11 2019 The possiblity of a 140 majority would surely tempt the new PM There is little doubt that the Telegraph’s ComRes poll that appeared on June 11th played a major part in the Conservative leadership contest. It came out at a crucial time just as the MP rounds of voting were due to start. As the headline above showed it pointed to a Johnson led Conservative Party winning a majority of 140 seats over LAB in a…

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The man or the message?

6/7/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

The recent decision by Iran to start enriching uranium, in breach of the JCPOA, shortly after the attack on two ships in the Gulf of Oman is a reminder of the Middle East’s penchant for unpleasant surprises. No sooner had the attack happened, than the US, followed by Britain, asserted Iran’s responsibility. There was intelligence proving this. Unsurprisingly perhaps, Corbyn queried its reliability and, even more predictably, was slapped down by the Foreign Secretary. Corbyn was, however, right to ask…

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Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

5/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Get ready for PM Johnson One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times. So tonight’s news in the Times that Johnson is ahead by 74-26 leaves us in little doubt about the outcome. That…

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The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2

5/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I may be committing a '@campbellclaret' error by sharing, but I care little!I'm a Labour Party member who is going canvassing to support @DoddsJane of the @WelshLibDems next week in her bid to win the #BreconandRadnorshireby-election.For me, it's #CountryBeforeParty #Remain pic.twitter.com/QtZE6TH72T — Angela ???? Rebel With Many Causes #ToriesOut (@spaceangel1964) July 5, 2019 Can they top the 49.7% of Richmond Park? Within the next hour we should get the full list of nominated candidates for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election…

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