Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

Biden back as favourite for the nomination after Harris fails to follow on from her first debate sucess

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Biden was probably the debate “winner” There’ve been big movements in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting following last night’s second part of the latest round of debates including Biden and Kamala Harris. Unlike the first debate in June when Harris launched effectively herself with a biting attack on 76 year old Biden this time there was no repetition and she herself came under sharp fire. A month ago Harris got to a near 40% chance on the Betfair exchange which…

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If the swing in tomorrow’s by-election is in line with today’s 10% CON lead YouGov poll then the Tories still lose the seat

If the swing in tomorrow’s by-election is in line with today’s 10% CON lead YouGov poll then the Tories still lose the seat

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There’s been a fair bit of speculation today following the latest YouGov/Times poll that all might not be lost for Tories in tomorrow’s by-election. Maybe but according to standard swing calculations BJohnson’s party needs more movement than this to fend off the yellow peril. Swing is calculated by looking at the poll shares in relation to what happened at the general election. So the Tory GB share on June 8th 2017 was 43.5% which is 11.5% greater than today’s poll….

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A week on from Johnson being called to the Palace and so far so good

A week on from Johnson being called to the Palace and so far so good

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How much of the bounce will be seen in Brecon? It is just a week ago that TMay went to the Palace to step down as PM and for the new Tory leader, BJohnson, to be invited to succeed her. Going back over the years new prime ministers’ taking over between general elections almost always see a boost in their party’s position in the voting intention polls. This happened with with John Major in 1990, Gordon Brown in 2007 and…

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Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

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Little change in the betting apart from Sanders moving up 2% The second round of Democratic nomination debates has once again been split into two because there are so many candidates still in the race who met the organisers qualification rules. This means that not all the front runners were on stage together and last night we were without Joe Biden who leads in the polls and Kamala Harris who currently leads in the betting. At the next debate in…

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Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

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Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire. At 26s I reckon it is value. Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning. — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 30, 2019 PM Johnson has been in Wales today and spent an hour or so in ‘Brecon and Radnorshire where the Tories are defending a 19.5% majority in the by-election on Thursday. This is a critical one for him and his government  because losing the seat would…

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Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

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The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The plummeting pound is a constant reminder of what Britain has to lose from crashing out without a deal (via @bopinion) https://t.co/A9BK8nSBrN pic.twitter.com/sQiecNk4v3 — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The markets could be what puts most pressure on Johnson After a week of almost positive coverage there’s a big cloud hanging over…

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Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

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Ladbrokes make Lib Dems strong favourites to re-take Sheffield Hallam, if we get a by-election this year. pic.twitter.com/izdiC6e46Q — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) July 29, 2019 One of the biggest shocks at the last general election was the former LD leader and deputy PM, Nick Clegg, losing his seat at Sheffield Hallam to LAB. Since then the news about this constituency has focused on the man who replaced him, Jared O’Mara, and things don’t look good with one negative story after…

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