politicalbetting.com – Page 677 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Failing to back the ambassador – the first mistake of the Boris premiership

10/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One thing that we know from the YouGov Conservative members’ polling is that that those who are choosing the next PM have a very different view of President Trump than than most UK voters. More than 50% of CON members have generally positive view compared with 21% amongst the electorate as a whole. The pollster finds 67% of Brits having a negative opinion. Maybe it was that knowledge which was behind Johnson’s equivocal response in the ITV debate last night…

Read More Read More

Johnson v Hunt – what do you think?

9/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Boris will say anything. A very weak, empty performance – but the forces to whom he appeals don’t seem to care. https://t.co/NWy4qCvoaq — Anthony Glees @anthonyglees (@AnthonyGlees) July 9, 2019 I'd say Boris Johnson is clear about what he is trying to achieve; avoid detail, focus on optimism. Jeremy Hunt can't decide whether he is asking questions or making his case. — tom bradby (@tombradby) July 9, 2019 Tory leadership debate, fuck help us. — Ian Dunt (@IanDunt) July 9,…

Read More Read More

New named leader hypotheticals from YouGov suggest that the Tories should have limited expectations for PM Boris

9/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Scenario 1: Imagine that a General Election is held later this year before Brexit has been delivered. Boris Johnson is the leader of the Conservatives, Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, Jo Swinson is leader of the Liberal Democrats and Nigel Farage is leader of the Brexit Party. How do you think you would then vote? Figures with undecideds and refused excluded: CON 23% LD 23% BREX 21% LAB: 17% GRN: 8% But there’s the possibility of success after Brexit…

Read More Read More

In spite of all the uncertainty a 2019 general election is still less than a 50% chance in the betting

9/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movements on Betfair Exchange Will Boris be tempted? Last night’s ComRes poll suggesting that the Tories under Johnson could secure a 40 seat majority raises the question once again of whether the new leader would risk going to the country soon after taking over the leadership. The reasons are powerful. The need to get Brexit through by the end of October and, of course, a desire to underpin the perceived democratic legitimacy of his position. Johnson would…

Read More Read More

The LDs and Greens can breathe a sigh of relief – LAB’s Brexit fudge to continue

8/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1148274041456930816 This is just an absurd position. How can you negotiate a good deal if the EU knows you will campaign against a bad one? https://t.co/6pPMG9RjZ7 — Aaron Bell (@AaronBell80) July 8, 2019 A gift to the unequivocal Remain parties Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Survey of LD members has Swinson ahead of Davey by 54% to 46%

8/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Who knows – the party could be choosing a future PM? So far the LD leadership contest has attracted little media coverage but is it just about feasible to contemplate that in the current political environment the next leader of the the strongly pro-EU LDs could be a future PM. James Kirkup sets out an interesting scenario on the Unherd political site. Meanwhile there’s what’s described as an “informal survey” of LD members that got the last contested election in…

Read More Read More

Democratic voters are more fired up about WH2020 than Republicans ones which could be bad news for Trump

8/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By far the biggest global political betting event next year will be the White House Race and all the series of state primaries leading up to it. We have, of course, already started the TV debates for the Democratic nomination and a further round is scheduled for the end of the month. Until now all the PB focus has been on the Democratic nomination race and we’ve barely looked at the bigger picture – will Trump get a second term?…

Read More Read More

The Midas touch. Living in a world of abundant knowledge

7/7/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

In the middle ages, Timbuktu was fabulously wealthy. It controlled the gold trade and it had all the riches that you would expect from that. Mansa Musa, the sultan, had a fortune that you couldn’t dream away, you couldn’t wish away. The sultan, as a good Muslim, performed the hajj, making the pilgrimage to Mecca. Being fabulously wealthy as well as a good Muslim, he travelled with a retinue of 60,000 men. All along the way, he gave gold to…

Read More Read More