The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong

The political backcloth to current events is that the majority of those who have a view think Brexit is wrong

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Cummings/Johnson don’t have public opinion on their side There was a time when the Brexit tracker in every new Times/YouGov poll would get reported and discussed with people trying to read something into the changes week on week. That’s now long gone. Public opinion as measured by this tracker has remained pretty constant for “wrong” with over the past year the lead being mostly in a range of 6-11 points. Clearly those answering that Brexit was wrong have a very…

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The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

The Brexit betting moves closer and closer to no deal – now a 40% chance

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Time to be betting that Johnson is bluffing? The Betdata.io chart of movements on the Betfair exchange shows how punters are getting more and more convinced that here will be a no deal Brexit in 2019. This covers the past four months when so much has happened in British politics and no doubt things will be even more turbulent in the weeks ahead. At the moment I’m not convinced enough to bet. The huge down-side of a no deal exit,…

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It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below 40% – Boris has done it within a fortnight

It took 330 days before TMay’s “best PM” rating dropped below 40% – Boris has done it within a fortnight

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Comparing the new man with his predecssor With all the numbers coming out about the new government it is perhaps worth looking at how Johnson and his team are comparing with Theresa May for the period starting when she became prime minister in July 2016. Although the voting intention polling is looking pretty sound for the Conservatives a worry might be the leader ratings that Boris Johnson has been getting since assuming the keys of number 10. One question pollsters…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

Do or Die? The trap the PM has set himself

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In all the reactions to the Times front page about the possibility of Johnson staying on as PM even if Parliament passes a VoNC in him and prefers someone else who can command the House, two absences were notable: (1) no immediate denial by No 10; and (2) no outrage by the official Opposition at the prospect of what would seem to be an appalling breach of normally understood conventions, moreover ones which would normally benefit the opposition. After all,…

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Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

Senator Elizabeth Warren becomes the fourth Democrat to occupy the WH2020 nomination favourite slot

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Since the Democratic WH2020 nomination betting opened there have now been four different contenders who have occupied the betting favourite slot on the Betfair exchange. First it was Senator Bernie Sanders, the 77 year old from Vermont, then ex-VP Jo Biden, 76,  who has had two stints there.  After her impressive performance in the first debate Senator Kamala Harris took over only to see her betting position decline sharply after a lacklustre second debate appearance last week The latest favourite…

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Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

Another set of PM Johnson leader ratings has him in deep negative territory

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Generally when PMs are replaced during a parliament the new person gets a boost in their leader ratings which I have long regarded as a better indicator of the political weather than voting intention polls. With BJohnson, only two weeks now into the job, things have been very different. Opinium had him on a net minus 3% in its approval ratings. Ipsos-MORI which asks how satisfied people are the mew CON leader and PM came out with minus 7%. Now,…

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The Conservative Party is pursuing profoundly un-conservative policies. So I’ve left it.

The Conservative Party is pursuing profoundly un-conservative policies. So I’ve left it.

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Ideology with no concern for consequences or convention is the business of revolutionaries I have today resigned my membership of the Conservative Party after 24 years. While that’s a moment of some sadness for me, it’s of trivial importance on any wider scale. What isn’t trivially important is the set of changes which the Party’s undergone in the last few years and especially the last few weeks because these will have an immense impact on the country, one way or…

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