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64 LAB peers pay for Guardian ad to tell Corbyn that he fails the test of leadership

17/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Time to bet on him not surviving 2019? The wording of the ad above is powerful and will get a lot of attention but the question is how will it impact on the future of the Labour leader who won the job convincingly in the 2015 leadership election and retained it a year later. The wording is quite smart because it does not accuse him of being antisemitic but questions whether his approach to the crisis that has engulfed the…

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The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

16/7/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly' — Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) July 15, 2019 Bet against an early general election. Boris Johnson has ruled it out. As he is Britain’s presumed Prime Minister, we can take him at his word. And here’s why. Let’s look at the counter-argument first. You will not lack for Leavers arguing that Boris Johnson should force an election as…

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Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence

16/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A loss in his first week would be a big blow In the week after Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister he will face his first by-election defence in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. Looking through the records this appears to be unprecedented. There hasn’t in modern times been a by-election scheduled to take place so soon after a new PM takes office and, inevitably it is going to be seen as something of a verdict on him. This…

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Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of winning a second term

15/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange The polls, though, have the top 4 Democrats beating him We’ve not looked at the main WH2020 market for some time – who’ll win the next hear’s White House race and as the chart shows what movement there’s been on the Betfair exchange has been towards the controversial incumbent. At the moment, of course, the Democrats are maybe a year away from deciding who their nominee shall be and it is only when that becomes…

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What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

15/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

No doubt he’ll be pressed at his first PMQs One of the current big political issues in Washington at the moment is a series of Trump Tweets yesterday attacking elected female Democratic members of Congress for their criticism of him particularly over the regime he’s imposed on immigrants in border camps. The Tweets above are part of his response and are probably the most overtly racist public comments that he’s made. The fact that his focus is on elected prominent…

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This unique feel good moment has the potential to change our politics. The questions are will it and how

15/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Probably the most significant decision by a media organisation in decades was that by Sky to allow yesterday’s Lords final of the cricket World Cup to be broadcast on free to air television. This meant that many more people were sitting gripped to their TVs as Stokes faced that “Super over” that clinched it. This made it a truly national England and Wales event. In Scotland things will be looked at very differently but that’s another story and and likely…

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What is there to say after a sporting day like this one?

14/7/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Cartoon by @briancartoon for @Independent https://t.co/ZeBZCzCttV pic.twitter.com/N1C7CN79MJ — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 14, 2019 I’d focused on the tennis and have just watched the final hour of the cricket on C4+1. Totally amazing. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The next Home Secretary betting

14/7/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Within a fortnight we should have a new Home Secretary. When Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister it is widely expected that his Chancellor will be Sajid Javid which creates a vacancy at the Home Office. So who will succeed Javid? I’m also working on assumption that Jeremy Hunt will remain Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, he views any other cabinet job, other than Chancellor of the Exchequer as a demotion so he’d retire to the backbenches. Boris Johnson will not…

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