Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence

Just 8 days after he enters Number 10 PM Johnson will face his first CON by-election defence

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A loss in his first week would be a big blow In the week after Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister he will face his first by-election defence in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire. Looking through the records this appears to be unprecedented. There hasn’t in modern times been a by-election scheduled to take place so soon after a new PM takes office and, inevitably it is going to be seen as something of a verdict on him. This…

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Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of winning a second term

Punters continue to rate Trump as having a near 50% chance of winning a second term

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange The polls, though, have the top 4 Democrats beating him We’ve not looked at the main WH2020 market for some time – who’ll win the next hear’s White House race and as the chart shows what movement there’s been on the Betfair exchange has been towards the controversial incumbent. At the moment, of course, the Democrats are maybe a year away from deciding who their nominee shall be and it is only when that becomes…

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What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

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No doubt he’ll be pressed at his first PMQs One of the current big political issues in Washington at the moment is a series of Trump Tweets yesterday attacking elected female Democratic members of Congress for their criticism of him particularly over the regime he’s imposed on immigrants in border camps. The Tweets above are part of his response and are probably the most overtly racist public comments that he’s made. The fact that his focus is on elected prominent…

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This unique feel good moment has the potential to change our politics. The questions are will it and how

This unique feel good moment has the potential to change our politics. The questions are will it and how

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Probably the most significant decision by a media organisation in decades was that by Sky to allow yesterday’s Lords final of the cricket World Cup to be broadcast on free to air television. This meant that many more people were sitting gripped to their TVs as Stokes faced that “Super over” that clinched it. This made it a truly national England and Wales event. In Scotland things will be looked at very differently but that’s another story and and likely…

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What is there to say after a sporting day like this one?

What is there to say after a sporting day like this one?

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Cartoon by @briancartoon for @Independent https://t.co/ZeBZCzCttV pic.twitter.com/N1C7CN79MJ — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 14, 2019 I’d focused on the tennis and have just watched the final hour of the cricket on C4+1. Totally amazing. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The next Home Secretary betting

The next Home Secretary betting

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Within a fortnight we should have a new Home Secretary. When Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister it is widely expected that his Chancellor will be Sajid Javid which creates a vacancy at the Home Office. So who will succeed Javid? I’m also working on assumption that Jeremy Hunt will remain Foreign Secretary under Boris Johnson, he views any other cabinet job, other than Chancellor of the Exchequer as a demotion so he’d retire to the backbenches. Boris Johnson will not…

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Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

Sounding the alarm. Britain’s democracy is under direct threat

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In two weeks’ time, Britain will have a Prime Minister whose commitment to democracy is contingent. Boris Johnson has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to secure a no deal Brexit by 31 October 2019. Let us call proroguing Parliament by its proper name: suspending democracy. The United Kingdom operates with an executive that is supervised by the legislature. If the executive suspends the legislature (which is what proroguing is), it is suspending the democratic control of…

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The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

The idea that Johnson is an electoral asset is not supported by his record

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Winning the Mayoralty when the Tories were 20%+ ahead was no big deal Much of the case for Johnson is based on the fact that he won the London Mayoralty for the Tories in 2008. The capital is seen as strong Labour territory therefore, the argument goes, he’s the man to lead the party when there’s the threat of Labour advancing. The only problem with that 2008 Mayoral result is that for the Tories generally it was the party’s best…

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