13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the Tories accuse their opponents of vandalism

13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the Tories accuse their opponents of vandalism

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Tories complaining in Brecon & Radnor by-election that their posters are getting vandalised https://t.co/oDswR6rgOH pic.twitter.com/hztA92wyTK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2019 The Brecon and Radnor Times   is reporting that the local Tories are complaining that their poster boards for the August 1st by-election are being vandalised by their opponents. See the Tweet above for an example. The by-election,  the first in a CON held seat this parliament,  had been triggered by the successful recall petition against the incumbent Tory…

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BoJo’s assertions on leaving by October 31st fail to convince Brexit date punters

BoJo’s assertions on leaving by October 31st fail to convince Brexit date punters

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange On Betfair a 2019 exit is just a 39% chance We’ve seen in the latest defeat for the government in proroguing parliaments that the parliamentary situation is going to make it very tough for Johnson. There simply aren’t the MP numbers there and now rebellious remain ministers are acting in unison in the same manner as the ERG hardliners. The latest news that at least three cabinet ministers are ready to resign also adds to…

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Blow for BoJo as CON MPs and ministers rebel on a measure that impedes his ability to prorogue parliament

Blow for BoJo as CON MPs and ministers rebel on a measure that impedes his ability to prorogue parliament

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MPs vote to block the next UK PM shutting down Parliament in order to push through a no-deal #Brexit, by 315 votes to 274https://t.co/0puewBdfxO pic.twitter.com/AP6HJf6fO0 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 18, 2019 https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1151840143889711105 pic.twitter.com/vDU9MSngqB — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 18, 2019 So the incoming PM’s wings are clipped before he starts Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange With Boris due to become Prime Minister in just 6 days time there’ve been sharp changes on the Betfair year of the next general election market. As can be seen from the chart 2019 is slipping downwards and the money is now going towards 2020. A lot of this, I would suggest, is down to a growing realisation that the Fixed-Term Parliament Act makes it quite hard for the new leader to call an election…

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Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

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  GE2017 LAB voters forgetting what they did could be causing distortion After the 1992 polling debacle when John Major’s Tories won an overall majority even though all but one of the pollsters had LAB ahead a big effort was launched by ICM to find out what had gone wrong and we’ve all heard about “shy Tories” less willing to take part in polls. The firm’s Nick Sparrow in conjunction with Prof John Curtice came up with what is known…

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Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire

Biden drops to second place in California while his lead’s down to just 4 in New Hampshire

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Another American White House race is starting to dominate political betting which is a  reminder of just how how long PB has been going.  WH2020 contest will be the fifth such race that PB has covered and, indeed, it was the battle for the Democratic nomination in 2004 that first prompted me to create the site. Even though the first states to decide on Democratic and GOP nomination won’t be for nearly six months the debates have started and the…

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64 LAB peers pay for Guardian ad to tell Corbyn that he fails the test of leadership

64 LAB peers pay for Guardian ad to tell Corbyn that he fails the test of leadership

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Time to bet on him not surviving 2019? The wording of the ad above is powerful and will get a lot of attention but the question is how will it impact on the future of the Labour leader who won the job convincingly in the 2015 leadership election and retained it a year later. The wording is quite smart because it does not accuse him of being antisemitic but questions whether his approach to the crisis that has engulfed the…

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The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

The catch. Why Boris Johnson probably won’t be going for an early general election

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Boris Johnson 'absolutely' rules out holding a general election before Britain has left the EU, saying: 'It would be the height of folly' — Jason Groves (@JasonGroves1) July 15, 2019 Bet against an early general election. Boris Johnson has ruled it out. As he is Britain’s presumed Prime Minister, we can take him at his word. And here’s why. Let’s look at the counter-argument first. You will not lack for Leavers arguing that Boris Johnson should force an election as…

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