Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

Frontrunners Sanders and Warren get the edge in the latest Democratic WH2020 nominationdebate

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Little change in the betting apart from Sanders moving up 2% The second round of Democratic nomination debates has once again been split into two because there are so many candidates still in the race who met the organisers qualification rules. This means that not all the front runners were on stage together and last night we were without Joe Biden who leads in the polls and Kamala Harris who currently leads in the betting. At the next debate in…

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Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

Could the Tories just hang on in Brecon & Radnorshire?

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Am going to stick so money on the Tories winning Brecon & Radnorshire. At 26s I reckon it is value. Feel free to laugh at me on Friday morning. — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 30, 2019 PM Johnson has been in Wales today and spent an hour or so in ‘Brecon and Radnorshire where the Tories are defending a 19.5% majority in the by-election on Thursday. This is a critical one for him and his government  because losing the seat would…

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Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

Continuing uncertainty over a no-deal Brexit sees the pound drop even further

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The pound could drop as low as $1.00 or $1.05 on a hard Brexit, Deutsche Bank analyst says https://t.co/vgb0ojdQON pic.twitter.com/S4SrjLc5iM — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The plummeting pound is a constant reminder of what Britain has to lose from crashing out without a deal (via @bopinion) https://t.co/A9BK8nSBrN pic.twitter.com/sQiecNk4v3 — Bloomberg Brexit (@Brexit) July 30, 2019 The markets could be what puts most pressure on Johnson After a week of almost positive coverage there’s a big cloud hanging over…

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Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

Now betting opens on a by-election that has not yet been called and indeed might never happen

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Ladbrokes make Lib Dems strong favourites to re-take Sheffield Hallam, if we get a by-election this year. pic.twitter.com/izdiC6e46Q — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) July 29, 2019 One of the biggest shocks at the last general election was the former LD leader and deputy PM, Nick Clegg, losing his seat at Sheffield Hallam to LAB. Since then the news about this constituency has focused on the man who replaced him, Jared O’Mara, and things don’t look good with one negative story after…

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In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the least attention to the campaign are backing Biden/Sanders

In the WH2020 Democratic nomination race those paying the least attention to the campaign are backing Biden/Sanders

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Quinnipac national poll Tomorrow night sees the second round of debates amongst those competing to be the Democratic nominee to take on Trump in the November 2020 White House race. After the first round last month California Senator, Kamala Harris, was deemed to have done best with what was seen as a highly effective attack on the 76 year old front runner and two times White House failure, Jo Biden. As a result she moved sharply into the favourite slot…

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On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair price movements The above market was put up a few weeks ago by Betfair and has yet to be discussed on PB. In terms of the level of betting it is by far the current biggest market and one where it is quite hard to judge. On the face of it the Johnson regime appears determined to leave by October 31st and it is hard to square his position with what is a big red line…

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(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

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A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…

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