What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

What will next set of polls show? I have no idea

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I saw this, cringed so hard, my feet shrank three sizes. https://t.co/VbgZAte8pA — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 6, 2019 Thinking about what to have for lunch. Large bucket of boneless (certainly spineless) JFC (Jeremy’s Frightened & Chicken) perhaps. pic.twitter.com/37t2GKmVOI — James Cleverly?? (@JamesCleverly) September 6, 2019 If chicken suits swung voters we wouldn't be in this mess (we'd be facing Chaos with Ed Miliband) pic.twitter.com/Hkq7MJvFhV — James Morris (@jamesdmorris) September 6, 2019 This afternoon a friend asked me what I thought…

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No-vember election. A betting tip

No-vember election. A betting tip

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Picture: On the pavement in Parliament Square. Credit John Rentoul. I did warn Boris Johnson that going for an early election would not work. If only he’d listened to my advice, he would not be in the pickle of pleading for an election that the Opposition may or may not deign to give him. It would have suited me better as well, because my betting tip at the end of that column is currently well underwater. It just shows the danger of assuming that…

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The Remainers of the Day. Why are pollsters consistently finding more Remainers than you would expect?

The Remainers of the Day. Why are pollsters consistently finding more Remainers than you would expect?

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I don’t take opinion polls very seriously and nor should you. For all that, they tell us something and some of the time we have no better clue as to what is going on than what they tell us. Right now, they seem to be telling us something rather interesting. For many months, pollsters have consistently found appreciably more respondents in their sample who said they voted Remain in 2016 than said they voted Leave. Since Leave won 52:48, this…

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If this poll turns out to be accurate then there’s no way Corbyn should agree to an October election

If this poll turns out to be accurate then there’s no way Corbyn should agree to an October election

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FT: Poll by ?@ICMResearch? suggests that a November election (as opposed to October) would wipe out the Tories’ big poll lead https://t.co/JTfN3d7Iu1 pic.twitter.com/ibGL5QLAKi — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) September 5, 2019 Tonight’s Financial Times reports that Some Labour strategists believe the Tories would be damaged by a spike in support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party if Mr Johnson fails to fulfil his pledge to take the UK out of the EU by October 31, “do or die”. An ICM poll…

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A closer look at one of tonight’s local council by elections

A closer look at one of tonight’s local council by elections

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James Blundell looks at tonight’s by election in Coventry. Away from the hubbub in Westminster, there is the upcoming Wainbody ward by-election which is the southernmost ward in Coventry where I grew up and has historically been a very safe ward for the Conservatives. It is relatively affluent and firmly middle class, my estimate for the leave vote there would probably be 55-60 even though we have no definitive figures. Due to the passing of Gary Crookes, a well-liked councillor…

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Jo Johnson’s resignation will only reinforce the doubts that Boris Johnson is only interested in himself and not the national interest

Jo Johnson’s resignation will only reinforce the doubts that Boris Johnson is only interested in himself and not the national interest

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Jo Johnson was a remainer who resigned from Theresa May’s Government in Nov 2018 saying no deal would “inflict untold damage” on the country. He and his brother clearly disagree. But to accuse him of betraying national interest on first day of his “election campaign” is ? ? — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) September 5, 2019 In a move more reminiscent of Game of Thrones meets the Milibands Jo Johnson’s resignation as both a minister and an MP has the potential…

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The Elevator Pitch

The Elevator Pitch

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It’s all frightfully exciting, isn’t it?! Parliament being prorogued. People demonstrating against coups. Cabinet Ministers, the PM even, having to confirm that they will obey the law. Discussions about obscure precedents from the reign of Queen Anne about whether or not the Queen has to assent to legislation. Government defeats. The loss of its majority to zero as the PM was speaking, the later fall into a minority administration. Long-standing senior MPs being expelled from their party, some by text…

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Unelected PM Boris Johnson maintains his 100% record in Parliament

Unelected PM Boris Johnson maintains his 100% record in Parliament

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Boris Johnson fails to win the backing of enough MPs to hold a snap election next month, falling short of the two-thirds majority required by law Live updates: https://t.co/UcpUupmXtg pic.twitter.com/iGcgvXkkgn — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) September 4, 2019 United Kingdom, 2019/20 Manager: Boris Johnson Form: LLL — Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 4, 2019 Am hearing many Tory MPs, including majority of Boris Johnson’s Cabinet, believe expelling two former Chancellors, moderates and long serving Tories like @NSoames was huge error. “We’ve got…

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