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Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit

15/8/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

His letter’s a strategic mistake The real fight starts here. Jeremy Corbyn has written to other opposition party leaders suggesting that if he calls a vote of no confidence in the government, he stands ready to lead a temporary government to obtain an extension to the Article 50 notice and then call a general election. Perplexingly, this ecumenical offer has met with a cool reception. The Lib Dems have given him the thumbs down on the ground that he would…

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Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn brand is busted

15/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Deltapoll July 27 2019 The biggest impediment to the movement is the man at the top The main challenge to LAB as it seeks to keep in the game is that its leader is dragging it down. Three weeks ago Deltapoll asked a supplementary question in its first post PM Johnson poll. How would you vote if Labour was led by someone other than Corbyn? The outcome is in the chart above. The detailed data from he latest Survation poll…

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The first Tory to be selected in a full all-postal primary, Sarah Wollaston MP, joins the LDs

14/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

It's confirmed. LD leader, Jo 'Swinson, has just sent this message out about Sarah Woolston MP pic.twitter.com/v8Keyi7I3F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 14, 2019 Wollaston, a local GP, first came to prominence when she won a full postal open primary ahead of GE2010 to be the CON candidate for Totnes. Partly of who she is and the manner of her selection she was never afraid to take positions that did no follow the party line. When she was part of…

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Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

14/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

NEW: Preferred Brexit outcome, updated: Remain in the EU 43% (+2)Leave the EU with a deal 29% (+2)Leave the EU without a deal19% (-6)Don’t know 9% (+2) changes w/ May 2019https://t.co/D6kusLfatx pic.twitter.com/leLDrFPK4I — Survation. (@Survation) August 14, 2019 Not the platform surely for a no deal-based General Election? With the October 31st deadline getting nearer and nearer all polls are being looked at closely to evaluate the gamble that Johnson would be taking if there was an Autumn UK general…

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Punters give the Tories a 67% chance of winning most seats but just a 32% one of securing a majority

14/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Six months chart of Betfair movements from Betdata.io We could be within 2 months of seeing a general election being declared and so far at least we haven’t looked at how punters are seeing the outcome. The chances in the betting on the Betfair change, where punters not bookies fix the odds, shows the movement on the Betfair Exchange over the past 6 months As can be seen there was a stage not so long ago when LAB was the…

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LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger. As can be seen the Lib Dems just have the edge of just one percent ahead The interesting figure is the 11% LAB share and my guess is that that would be squeezed very tightly in a general election in places where the Lib Dems would be the main challengers…

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At least ComRes didn’t bring Nelson Mandela into its controversial poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

When mentioning his name might get better results? All the discussion over alleged leading questions in the ComRes poll have provided a peg fo me to highlight one of my favourite polls ever. In the build-up in 2005 to the resolution London’s bid for the 2012 Olympics a poll was commissioned to try to show that people in the capital backed the idea. This was the series of questions in the order that they were put:- “Are you aware that…

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ComRes and the Telegraph come under fierce fire from other pollsters over the latest poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I can't recall a national opinion poll for a leading newspaper being so criticized as tonight's one from ComRes for the Daily Telegraph. To think that just 4 years ago after the 2015 general election ComRes was regarded as the top pollster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Important – @Telegraph reporting taking the piss by ignoring “don’t knows” to present an apparent majority – one for @FullFact @RoyalStatSoc @TweetMRS https://t.co/Qyz0hopxZL — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 13,…

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