Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

Before we can make judgements about the outcome of an early general election we need new Scotland only polling

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The last one was in June There’s been a lot of GB voting intention polling since Mr Johnson became the new Tory leader and Prime Minister but none of it has been Scotland specific. One thing we do know is that is can be highly misleading keying the latest GB poll shares into Baxter and getting anything that is relevant to Scotland. North of the border, as we all know, is the part of the UK which has seen the…

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How special is special? The US-UK relationship

How special is special? The US-UK relationship

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Be honest. How many G7 summits do you remember? How many are little more than talking shops with the same old photos of largely the same old characters? Last year’s summit, for instance, was mostly memorable for that photo of a defensive obstinate Trump surrounded by an exasperated Merkel and others. And this year? We have the sight of Trump showing off his latest pet, our very own Prime Minister, laughing a little too keenly  at the President’s bon mots (or…

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Swinson is polling better amongst CON Remainers than Johnson while Farage has a big lead over Corbyn with LAB leavers

Swinson is polling better amongst CON Remainers than Johnson while Farage has a big lead over Corbyn with LAB leavers

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One of the really great things about Opinium polls for the Observer is the way they present their data including crossheads that other pollsters don’t manage to produce. One set of these is the source of the chart above. How 2017 Conservative Remainers are responding to the different questions as well as 2017 Labour leavers. In each case from the firm’s regular approval ratings I have deducted those giving a negative answer from those giving a positive one. I have…

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Wise thoughts on how the Tories would do in a snap general election from Keiran Pedley

Wise thoughts on how the Tories would do in a snap general election from Keiran Pedley

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It amazes me that people have such short memories. Theresa May was going to walk the 2017 General Election and then didn’t. Perhaps it will be different this time – Johnson will almost certainly run a better campaign it’s true. But perhaps not. Care needed. — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) August 24, 2019 It’s possible to foresee a world where Lib Dem / SNP gains really hurt the Tories & meanwhile Lab run a 2017 style campaign that recovers vote share…

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Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

Boris Johnson PM : His first electoral tests – the local by-elections

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Analysis from Harry Hayfield Many people have said the reason why Boris Johnson was elected Conservative leader, and Prime Minister, was to stop one thing and one thing alone from happening, and that one was Conservative voters flooding to the Brexit Party and following his consistent statements of “We are leaving on October 31st 2019” local by-elections since his election do seem to indicate that is precisely what has happened. Now, I will admit there have only been eight local…

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Clarke’s TANDA – what about all the other positions?

Clarke’s TANDA – what about all the other positions?

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This might easily be an insuperable barrier, even if the PM isn’t Let’s make the heroic assumption that the Tories are brought down in a Vote of No Confidence, Corbyn cannot gather the support to form a government but he reluctantly concedes that if someone else can, on a temporary basis, in order to secure an Article 50 extension and then trigger a general election, Labour will support that. This is, frankly, a long shot. Corbyn has not sounded at…

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If O’Mara does quit as an MP on September 3rd the ensuing by-election will be a backcloth in the build up to October 31st

If O’Mara does quit as an MP on September 3rd the ensuing by-election will be a backcloth in the build up to October 31st

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The timing might not help BJohnson The Sheffield Hallam MP, Jared O’Mara, has made it clear that as soon as the Commons returns from its summer break he will step down thus triggering what could be an interesting by-election in Nick Clegg’s old seat. Labour are already throwing everything at defending their great victory there at GE2017 while a full LD by-election operation is already in place. Assuming that the by-election is called almost immediately, then polling day could coincide…

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The coming Battle of Brighton could determine the fate of Brexit

The coming Battle of Brighton could determine the fate of Brexit

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If Labour sticks to its current fudge of a policy, No Deal is the likely outcome Conferences don’t usually matter. These days, they’re mostly occasions when the party can try to sell itself and its policies to the media and the public – a glorified party political broadcast, if you like – while also acting as a bonding exercise for members of that party. It doesn’t always work out like that of course, but those are the primary aims. For…

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