The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect

The Brecon & Radnorshire recall petition succeeds and an early by-election test for the new CON leader is in prospect

The result for the Chris Davies by election vote is announced. More on @ITVWales later pic.twitter.com/PC24Ex9XqM — Timbo (@Channel405TV) June 21, 2019 Expect it to take place on July 25 or August 1st So the the B&R recall petition has succeeded though the number signing, 19% was somewhat below the 27% that we saw in Peterborough. This mean a by-election which is likely to happen at the end of July or in early August – just after the new CON…

Read More Read More

For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

For the moment at current prices I’m laying Johnson

Never before has a party membership chosen a PM We are now at a unique stage in British political history when the members of a particular party will by postal ballot decide who the next prime minister shall be. The decisions that members will take are of a different magnitude from other party leadership contests. So we need to see new “final two” CON member polling to establish whether there has been any shift now that we know which two…

Read More Read More

Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

Over now to the group that rates IDS as the fifth best CON leader since the war

The YouGov CON members poll on previous CON leaders So it is going to be Johnson and Hunt   who will be on the postal ballot of CON members. To give us an idea of how the current membership view leadership issue I’ve produced the above chart from this month’s YouGov CON members polls. The most negative rating is given to Heath who arguably led his party to the most significant victory in June 1970 ending the first Wilson government.  This…

Read More Read More

Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job

Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job

Farage’s favourite pollster, Survation, has already been active At 5pm today the six recall petition centres across the B&R constituency will close their doors and late tomorrow morning the sitting CON MP will learn whether or not 10% of those on the electoral roll have signed the petition demanding his recall. If the total tops the required number then the Speaker will be informed formally and a vacancy will be declared. The petition follows the conviction of the CON MP…

Read More Read More

This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote

How IDS got into the members’ ballot with fewer than a third of the MP votes The very first time the CON leadership election procedure that we are seeing at the moment was used was in 2001 in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s second successive landslide general election victory. The longstanding favourite and the person expected to take the crown was Michael Portillo who had lost his Enfield seat at GE1997. He returned to the Commons in a by-election and…

Read More Read More

Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate

CON leadership vote 3rd round of MPsGove 51Hunt 54Javid 38Johnson 143Stewart 27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019 So Tory MPs exclude the contender most likely to reach out to centre ground voters. Crazy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin

This raises doubts over BoJo’s ability to win converts YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above. While there’s little doubt that the member for Uxbridge does well with Tory voters but the party is going to need much more than them in a general election and that presents something of a dilemma.  That just 7% of Remain voters gave their…

Read More Read More