Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

Johnson looks a certainty as YouGov CON members’ poll has him leading 74-26

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Get ready for PM Johnson One thing that we’ve learned over the last two decades is that we can rely of YouGov CON members’ polling to give a pretty accurate picture of the outcome of a leadership ballot. Before IDS and Cameron’s victories in the postal ballots the firm had the final outcomes to within a point both times. So tonight’s news in the Times that Johnson is ahead by 74-26 leaves us in little doubt about the outcome. That…

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The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2

The LDs winning 50%+ of the Brecon & Radnorshire vote looks good value at 7/2

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I may be committing a '@campbellclaret' error by sharing, but I care little!I'm a Labour Party member who is going canvassing to support @DoddsJane of the @WelshLibDems next week in her bid to win the #BreconandRadnorshireby-election.For me, it's #CountryBeforeParty #Remain pic.twitter.com/QtZE6TH72T — Angela ???? Rebel With Many Causes #ToriesOut (@spaceangel1964) July 5, 2019 Can they top the 49.7% of Richmond Park? Within the next hour we should get the full list of nominated candidates for the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election…

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The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face

The harsh facts that the leadership contenders need to face

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Lawyers are rarely regarded with affection.  Lawyers-turned-politicians even less so.  Nonetheless David Gauke’s speech at this week’s Lord Mayor’s banquet is worth a careful read, not least for its defence of the rule of law as a critical element underpinning democracy (a word never off the lips of some politicians wholly ignorant that something more than shouting “The people have voted” repeatedly is needed to sustain a democracy).  Gauke’s quiet praise for the unfashionable virtues of public service, intellectual rigour, a…

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Speculation over 2019 election has punters now making it a 42% chance

Speculation over 2019 election has punters now making it a 42% chance

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Betfair Exchange historical prices from betdata.io With political uncertainty continuing to dominate British politics the chances of a general election this year have moved to a 42% chance on Betfair. This is not the highest it has ever been but, as the chart shows, it represents considerable change. I’m not convinced. I think the new CON leader, most likely Boris, will do anything that avoids an early exit that could deprive him of what he has been aiming for for…

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LAB drops to record low in latest YouGov Times poll

LAB drops to record low in latest YouGov Times poll

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BREAKING: Labour down to 18%, record low in poll CON 24%(+2)BREX 23%(+1)LDEM 20%(+1)LAB 18%(-2)GRN 9%(-1) ?Lowest ever rating with @YouGov back to 2002 ?Only time as low as 18% was IpsosMORI in May’09 ?57% of Lab ‘17 voters back other partieshttps://t.co/DdJkLH2g8b pic.twitter.com/WJrZaHwXXv — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) July 3, 2019 Paying the price for its Brexit equivocation? It is not often outside election campaigns for a paper like the Times to make its main story it a Westminster voting intention poll…

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Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide

Biden pushed into third place in Iowa – the first state to decide

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NEW IOWA poll from @davidbinder , via @linkiowa pro-ethanol group, shows a wiiiide open caucus after the first debate: WARREN: 20HARRIS: 18BIDEN: 17SANDERS: 12PETE: 10 note: N = 600, which is as big as some of the Dem samples in public polling *national* samples. — Jonathan Martin (@jmart) July 3, 2019 The reverberations from the first debates continue For several decades the state of Iowa has played a key part in shaping White House race every four years. For its…

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A taste of PMQs with PM Johnson? How he handled City Hall question time while London Mayor

A taste of PMQs with PM Johnson? How he handled City Hall question time while London Mayor

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And what did over a sugar tax when Mayor The Boris war on sugar taxes comes just two and a half years after he imposed a similar measure at City Hall while Mayor of London https://t.co/1RCUXibcNE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet