On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Betfair exchange prices on betdata.io chart As can be seen in the chart the day has seen a lot of movement in the £2.5m Betfair exchange main Brexit market on whether the UK will leave by the end of the month. Clearly the big risk for punters here is that this doesn’t go through the Commons on Saturday and we could see the Benn Act trigger which could delay things. Even if the vote is backing Johnson on Saturday there…

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Welcome to the Looking-Glass

Welcome to the Looking-Glass

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“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.”  Has Humpty (oops, sorry, the PM) gone and done it? Has he actually got Britain a deal to Brexit before 31 October? Well, it appears he…

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So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

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Now it is up to the Commons and the meaningful vote brexit: caught between a cock and a hard face pic.twitter.com/8aOkfH7Vmh — Sarah Dempster (@Dempster2000) October 17, 2019 So the person now calling for a Brexit extension is… @Nigel_Farage. Brexit has gone full circle. He wants an election on PM’s deal. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 17, 2019 2018: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = outrageous & unacceptable infringement on UK’s integrity…

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Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

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Fivethirtyeight.com My 760/1 bet on Amy starting to look less of a loser A couple of weeks ago on the Betfair exchange’s WH2020 winner market I noticed that there was £8 available at 760/1 on the Minnesota Senator and contender for the nomination, Amy Klobuchar who so far has had a fairly quiet race. My view than was that anybody in the running and qualifying to take part in the next debate should have been on tighter odds than that…

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Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

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I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997. pic.twitter.com/3BTzUacZvo — Louise Ellman MP (@LouiseEllman) October 16, 2019 Why is it that the haters go for the women? Incidents like this and the failure of the party under Corbyn to deal…

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Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate

Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate

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Betfair market tracked by Betdata.io The big event in US politics overnight has been the latest Democratic TV debate and having now just caught up with it this was the best so far. It was great political TV and there has been some impact in the betting. Favourite Warren has now slipped below a 50% chance after being on 54% within the past few days. Inevitably as front runner she was the focus of attacks by other contenders of who…

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As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

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The voting intentions in the same YouGov poll. New YouGov/Times poll sees CON up 2 CON 37% +2LAB 22% =LD 18% -2BRX 11% -1GRN 5% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2019 A GE constituency poll We conducted a telephone method constituency poll (f/w) Oct 2nd) on behalf of the Liberal Democrats in Finchley & Golders Green. Headline GE voting intention with named candidate prompt was: Conservative – 29%Liberal Democrat – 41%Labour – 25%Green – 3%Brexit Party – 2%…

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Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

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Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)…

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