In the year of general election betting punters continue to make 2019 odds on favourite but not the near certainty that it was

In the year of general election betting punters continue to make 2019 odds on favourite but not the near certainty that it was

Chart by Betdata.io We are now in October and we know that the law lays down that there has to be 25 working days between an election being called and polling day so if one is to take place this year the options are running out. This month sees, of course, the Article 50 deadline and the court case in Scotland that seeks to ensure that a letter seeking an extension under the Benn act is actually sent if Johnson…

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The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

The curious incident of the ERG at Christmas 2017

Congratulations to PM for her determination in getting today’s deal. We now aim to forge a deep and special partnership with our European friends and allies while remaining true to the referendum result – taking back control of our laws, money and borders for the whole of the UK. — Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) December 8, 2017 Johnson Tweet from December 2017 The dozy reaction to the Joint Report has misframed Brexit ever since Why does a dog not bark when…

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Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for the London Mayoralty as an independent

Failed CON leadership contender, Rory Stewart, to fight for the London Mayoralty as an independent

Has he bitten off more than he can chew? There has been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 London Mayoral race following the announcement this morning that the former Tory cabinet minister and failed leadership contender, Rory Stewart, has decided to enter the race. This came after he announced that he would not be standing again at the General Election for his Penrith seat. Stewart has quickly moved into second place in the betting while the…

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Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

Punters rate Johnson’s chances of taking the UK out of the EU by the end of the month at 26%

But read the detailed betting rules The big Brexit betting market as seen above in the betdata.io chart is whether Johnson will achieve his objective of an October 31st exit as per the Article 50 deadline. Like in all political bets it is important to read Betfair’s  detailed rules of the market which in this case are: “For the purposes of this market leaving the EU is defined as the date when the treaties of the EU cease to apply…

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New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisions to be made by a referendum

New YouGov polling finds firm backing for final Brexit decisions to be made by a referendum

Not a good polling backdrop for “People versus Parliament” In the panel above from new YouGov polling published this afternoon there is clear support for a final referendum on a deal or if nothing can be agreed a no deal. This fits in with other polling that we have seen from other pollsters. It is going to be hard politically to drive through something based on the June 2016 referendum. That was then this is now and voters know much…

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Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

Reports of a heart scare for Bernie Sanders help Warren move to become odds on favourite for the nomination

Two national polls and a couple of state surveys in the last 2-days have  shown that Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is heading the field, by a clear margin, in the fight to be the Democratic nominee in next year’s White House Race. This is a big change for until now the former VP, Joe Biden, had dominated just about all the surveys. She has been helped by the illness of Bernie Sanders who might have to pull out of…

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The front pages after Johnson’s big conference speech

The front pages after Johnson’s big conference speech

Surprisingly the two biggest circulation and arguably most influential politically papers, the Mail and the Sun, do not make in their lead. The former ignores it completely on its front page. Quite what we can read into that I don’t know. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet