Gove moves into second place as CON MPs prepare to vote for a fifth time
Latest voteGove 61Hunt 59Javid 34Johnson 157 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2019
Johnson’s first battle as PM with the BXP looks set to be at Brecon & Radnor within a week of him getting the job
Farage’s favourite pollster, Survation, has already been active At 5pm today the six recall petition centres across the B&R constituency will close their doors and late tomorrow morning the sitting CON MP will learn whether or not 10% of those on the electoral roll have signed the petition demanding his recall. If the total tops the required number then the Speaker will be informed formally and a vacancy will be declared. The petition follows the conviction of the CON MP…
This is a good moment to recall the MP stage of the 2001 Tory leadership election when Portillo missed the cut by just one vote
How IDS got into the members’ ballot with fewer than a third of the MP votes The very first time the CON leadership election procedure that we are seeing at the moment was used was in 2001 in the aftermath of Tony Blair’s second successive landslide general election victory. The longstanding favourite and the person expected to take the crown was Michael Portillo who had lost his Enfield seat at GE1997. He returned to the Commons in a by-election and…
Now we are down to the final 4 and CON MPs reject the contender deemed to have “won” last night’s debate
CON leadership vote 3rd round of MPsGove 51Hunt 54Javid 38Johnson 143Stewart 27 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019 So Tory MPs exclude the contender most likely to reach out to centre ground voters. Crazy — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 19, 2019
YouGov snap CON debate poll gives it to Stewart amongst all voters by a big margin
This raises doubts over BoJo’s ability to win converts YouGov has published what appears to be the only poll carried out on last night’s CON leader debates. The main details are in the YouGov table above. While there’s little doubt that the member for Uxbridge does well with Tory voters but the party is going to need much more than them in a general election and that presents something of a dilemma. That just 7% of Remain voters gave their…
From a media perspective Team Boris will regard last night as job well done
He’s helped by the size of the field The Boris plan of refusing almost all media invitations meant that last night was the first time anybody had seen him facing scrutiny since TMay announced that she was going. But the nature of the programme with the BBC feeling it had to bring in questions from studios all over the country meant that the time spent with the overwhelming betting favourite was very limited. I found him less than convincing and…
If punters have this right the big loser in the CON debate was Stewart – down from a 9% chance to a 4% one
Betfair exchange via Betdata.io For those who didn’t watch just check out the comments on the previous thread. Overall I don’t think it has changed much. For me the most impressive performers were Hunt and Javid. Stewart didn’t meet expectations and hence his decline in the betting. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Raab out – Stewart the big gainer
The result 33 votes being required to stay in Gove 41Hunt 46Javid 33Johnson 126Raab 30Stewart 37 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2019