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Elizabeth Warren drop to below 50% in the betting after the latest Democratic debate

16/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betfair market tracked by Betdata.io The big event in US politics overnight has been the latest Democratic TV debate and having now just caught up with it this was the best so far. It was great political TV and there has been some impact in the betting. Favourite Warren has now slipped below a 50% chance after being on 54% within the past few days. Inevitably as front runner she was the focus of attacks by other contenders of who…

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As the Brexit negotiations reach a critical point the latest YouGov trackers has “Brexit wrong” with 5% lead

16/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The voting intentions in the same YouGov poll. New YouGov/Times poll sees CON up 2 CON 37% +2LAB 22% =LD 18% -2BRX 11% -1GRN 5% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 16, 2019 A GE constituency poll We conducted a telephone method constituency poll (f/w) Oct 2nd) on behalf of the Liberal Democrats in Finchley & Golders Green. Headline GE voting intention with named candidate prompt was: Conservative – 29%Liberal Democrat – 41%Labour – 25%Green – 3%Brexit Party – 2%…

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Mayor Pete’s The One To Beat

16/10/2019 robert Comments 0 Comment

Iowa. Iowa. Iowa. I keep repeating it, because it’s important. The winner (and potentially the runner up) in Iowa define the primary process. After Obama won Iowa in 2008, he saw his national polling pop more than twenty points. In a crowded a Democratic field in need of much culling, the winner’s pop could be even greater. (Simply: there are a lot of 2% candidates whose supporters will need to find new homes after they get null delegates in Iowa.)…

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As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

15/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart of Betfair movements from betdata.io On a day when so much seems to be changing on a Brexit dale there has not been as much betting movement as you might have thought. Still the view is that Brexit’s not going to happen immediately and not before a new general election. Tonight is just the first hurdle. If there is a draft deal that will have to be agreed by the EU27 at their meeting later in the week. And…

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“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

15/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

They were also promising this. We’ve got the monstrosity of Settled Status instead. pic.twitter.com/41dNhKvENw — Catherine Redmond?#People’sVote #FBPE????? (@Redmo8Catherine) October 13, 2019 Things are different now the country’s being led by Cummings/Johnson Lots of talk at moment about “honouring the Referendum”. Fair enough. Those who espouse that seem to look to the result itself rather than the promises and assertions made my the official Leave campaign in the run up to the June 23rd 2016 vote. It was harder to…

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With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

15/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart of movements on the Betfair exchange from betdata.io The big news for those betting on whether there will be an exit from the EU this month within the Article 50 deadline is that the market rates the chances of a deal this week as being less likely. What we should read into that is hard to say. The EU has a long history of things going right to the wire and there must be just a possibility that something…

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Today’s Top Tip for Remainers – if there’s a 2nd Referendum demand strict voter photo ID

14/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

At a constituency level there is a strong linear relationship between estimated Leave vote and not having a passport. pic.twitter.com/VxRTv6zCuS — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) October 13, 2019 And driving licences by age There’s a case for arguing that the section of the population who’d have most problems with proposed voter ID laws are the elderly who are much less likely to have a passport and/or a driving licence. Given that they were much more likely to vote Leave in june…

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Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

14/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And 4/1 that Remain would win Given how difficult Johnson has had in winning votes in the House of Commons this morning’s Queen’s Speech had a touch a fantasy about it. His Government is in a minority and thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act he is unable to call a general election to ameliorate the situation. So having the monarch with all the ceremonial trappings listing the legislative plans was a bit it strange given there are simply not the…

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