On the eve of the first ballot some of this morning’s front pages
Will the rain dampen Boris’s chances? Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight
And a further £1.3m has been gambled on the next PM market Here is tonight’s chart showing the movement on the Betfair exchange next CON leader market where the total gambled has now topped £3.5m. There’s been very little significant movement and I don’t expect to see much change until Thursday evening when the result of the first CON MP ballot is announced. Johnson is still odds-on favourite and it will be interesting to see whether or not he has…
Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls
Don’t confuse high name recognition with popularity Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when Johnson just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points. As can be seen none of the pollsters had the gap so close. Overstatement can happen when one of the people being the subject of the survey has very high name recognition. So treat any Boris polling numbers with a degree of scepticism. Mike Smithson Follow…
Gove’s cocaine admission dominates just four of the front pages this morning
Could it be all history when CON MPs vote on Thursday? As an ex-newspaperman Michael Gove must know how the media’s attention can easily forget a story and even though it is just 2 days before the MP vote only four national papers are making his admission of taking cocaine their big story. My guess is that this will be the end of the coverage and his hope that he might be able to stay in the race could just…
The CON leadership race is now down to ten with the first MP vote on Thursday
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Does BoJo’s Trappist strategy speak volumes about his fitness? So we now know the names of the CON MPs who will be on the first ballot. These are: Michael Gove Matt Hancock Mark Harper Jeremy Hunt Sajid Javid Boris Johnson Andrea Leadsom Esther McVey Dominic Raab Rory Stewart All of them bar one have been out today talking incessantly about their hopes and plans whilst at the same time finding a chance…
The idea that BoJo has some magical means of reaching LAB or pro-Brexit voters isn’t backed up by his record
Let's not forget that LAB secured a 6.5% swing against Boris at GE2017. That hardly suggests he can reach voters that others can't pic.twitter.com/DpsvZahKoN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 10, 2019 At Uxbridge Johnson performed worse than the London Tory average One of the apparent great selling points for Johnson to his party is that somehow he has a means of reaching voters that other Tories do not have. Therefore, his supporters argue, he is the man to take the…
The great Betfair TMay resignation date row
Is the betting exchange right not to be paying out now? Last Friday TMay formally quit as CON leader which opened the way for a leadership contest. She is staying on as acting leader whilst the battle to replace her goes on and that won’t be completed until July. For those many punters who backed on the Betfair exchange that she would be gone by the end of June are arguing that following Friday’s move they should get their winnings….
The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange From 2nd favourite to a longshot in just a couple of days The big political news over the weekend has been the the reaction to Michael Gove’s statement that he had in the past taken cocaine. Although other runners for TMay’s job have made similar admissions about their drug-taking pasts the Gove one has had the biggest impact. Maybe this is because it was about cocaine. I wonder whether this will all…