The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

The money’s now going on the meaningful vote being carried tomorrow

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Betfair have a market up on their exchange tomorrow’s big vote in the Commons and the Betdata.io chart above shows the movement since 1430 this afternoon. As can be seen the betting consensus is moving to the motion getting through. The market rules state that: “ If the House of Commons vote through the government motion on a EU withdrawal agreement then Yes will be settled as a winner. In the event of a tie the market will be settled…

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There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

There is little from the betting to indicate which way punters think tomorrow’s vote will go

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The betting odds above from Ladbrokes were correct as at 1345. Things might have changed since. Given how many different views and MPs counts estimates that we are seeing the lack of a clear view on the betting markers is hardly surprising. The outcome is clearly on a knife. What would really add to the drama would have this as a tie with the Speaker making the casting vote just eleven days before he steps down. One thing that hasn’t…

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Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

Dealing with the Brexit trilemma : How Johnson’s approach differed from TMay’s

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A guest slot from Timothy Hinton I have consistently misunderstood the Brexit options open to the UK as existing on a continuum, from the softest Single Market + Customs Union extreme on one end to the hardest No Deal extreme on the other. The choices made by Boris Johnson, and the relative speed with which the UK and EU were able to reach agreement on a radically different deal, have made it clear that the main options have been much…

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On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

On the betting markets punters now make it a 40% chance that the UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

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Betfair exchange prices on betdata.io chart As can be seen in the chart the day has seen a lot of movement in the £2.5m Betfair exchange main Brexit market on whether the UK will leave by the end of the month. Clearly the big risk for punters here is that this doesn’t go through the Commons on Saturday and we could see the Benn Act trigger which could delay things. Even if the vote is backing Johnson on Saturday there…

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Welcome to the Looking-Glass

Welcome to the Looking-Glass

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“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master – that’s all.”  Has Humpty (oops, sorry, the PM) gone and done it? Has he actually got Britain a deal to Brexit before 31 October? Well, it appears he…

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So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

So a deal is there and it looks more likely to pass than TMay’s one

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Now it is up to the Commons and the meaningful vote brexit: caught between a cock and a hard face pic.twitter.com/8aOkfH7Vmh — Sarah Dempster (@Dempster2000) October 17, 2019 So the person now calling for a Brexit extension is… @Nigel_Farage. Brexit has gone full circle. He wants an election on PM’s deal. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 17, 2019 2018: Northern Ireland inside the Customs Union + economic border in the Irish Sea = outrageous & unacceptable infringement on UK’s integrity…

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Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

Post Democratic debate polling finds Klobuchar and Buttigieg getting the biggest ratings boost

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Fivethirtyeight.com My 760/1 bet on Amy starting to look less of a loser A couple of weeks ago on the Betfair exchange’s WH2020 winner market I noticed that there was £8 available at 760/1 on the Minnesota Senator and contender for the nomination, Amy Klobuchar who so far has had a fairly quiet race. My view than was that anybody in the running and qualifying to take part in the next debate should have been on tighter odds than that…

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Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

Another female Jewish MP is hounded out of Labour

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I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997. pic.twitter.com/3BTzUacZvo — Louise Ellman MP (@LouiseEllman) October 16, 2019 Why is it that the haters go for the women? Incidents like this and the failure of the party under Corbyn to deal…

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