Betfair have a market up on their exchange tomorrow’s big vote in the Commons and the Betdata.io chart above shows the movement since 1430 this afternoon. As can be seen the betting consensus is moving to the motion getting through.
The market rules state that:
“ If the House of Commons vote through the government motion on a EU withdrawal agreement then Yes will be settled as a winner. In the event of a tie the market will be settled on the Speakers deciding vote”….For clarity Section 13 of the EU Withdrawal Act 2018 states that the Withdrawal Agreement may be ratified only if: (A) a Minister of the Crown has laid before the House (i) a statement that agreement has been reached (ii) a copy of the negotiated withdrawal agreement and (iii) a copy of the framework for the future relationship (B) the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown. Only when these conditions have been met will it be deemed a ‘Meaningful Vote’ has taken place.”
What is not clear is what happens if the motion is amended though a note on the rules states “If this vote does not take place on 19/10/2019 this market will be voided.”