On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

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Chart Betdata.io Judging by the reaction from LAB MPs tonight it is hard to see Johnson getting the 434 votes he needs on Monday to back his December 12th general election plan. Of course there are the usual shouts of “chicken” to the main opposition party but we have been down this road twice before. Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table. In a sense…

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Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his entire campaign

Biden drops to FOURTH in Iowa in by far his worst poll of his entire campaign

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Biden drops to FOURTH in new Iowa poll. Iowa State University/Civiqs survey hasWarren 28%Buttigieg 20%Sanders 18%Biden 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2019 Those polled were also ask to list the candidate they do not want to win the nomination. Biden and Sanders topped this list. So not a good outcome for those aged 76 and more. The Buttigieg second place will attract most attention and this is by far his best position in any state or national primary…

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Let’s not forget that Johnson’s precarious parliamentary situation is largely self-made

Let’s not forget that Johnson’s precarious parliamentary situation is largely self-made

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He inherited from TMay an effective majority of 3 The reason that Johnson is in such a weak parliamentary position stems directly from two big decisions that he has made. First there was the reaction to his first Commons vote when he stripped 21 of his party’s MPs from the whip. Then there was his Brexit agreement with its changes for the status Northern Ireland which have resulted in the DUP’s 10 MPs moving entirely to the other side. This…

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Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

Why the bar that the Tories will have to surmount at the next election has just got higher

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All the talk is of elections. This time we might actually see one. In a narrative that has strong echoes of 2017, the talk is all of the Conservatives holding large leads in the polls, remaking their coalition and sweeping all gloriously before them with a victory that will transform the electoral map. Well, perhaps. It was Marx who first suggested that when history repeats itself, the first time is tragedy and the second is farce. Whether or not you…

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On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month

On the betting markets punters now make it a 3.7% chance that Brexit will happen by the end of the month

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Last Thursday it nearly touched 50% There’s been a huge amount of activity on the £5m Betfair “Brexit by the end of October” market where just six days ago, after the deal was revealed, the chances of the UK leaving by October 31st were rated at 49%. More than £3m has been gambled with this one bookmaker in those few days. The Commons was always going to be a massive hurdle for Johnson given his…

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The People Will Speak

The People Will Speak

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There are, broadly, two groups supporting Brexit. First: people who feel that globalisation has gone too far, the cards stacked for far too long in favour of the rich, the well-connected, the mobile, the “citizens of the world”. They want more attention paid to those valuing home, the local, the familiar, the traditional, the markers of belonging: a flag, anthem, a shared history, a sense of “us” and “our story”. Conservative – in the sense of not wanting too much…

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Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn, surely, will want to wait

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Chart of Betfair market from betdata.io According to this Guardian Tweet there was discussion at the Shadow cabinet this morning over the timing of the general election with one or two pressing for an early contest. As has been observed many times we are in a unique situation over this. Sure Johnson wants one as soon as possible because his government is in a minority and he’ll struggle to get anything through. Unfortunately for him the timing is no longer…

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