All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

All could change in the WH2020 nomination race on the evening of February 3rd in the midwest state of Iowa

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Current odds on the Democratic nominee: Biden 25%, Warren 22%, Harris 19%, Sanders 11%, Buttigieg 6%, Yang 4% pic.twitter.com/rVaaaZz3pN — BetData (@betdatapolitics) August 6, 2019 The betting is clear. Former vice president and 2 times White House campaign failure, Jo Biden, is back as favourite in the betting on the Democratic nomination on Betfair. It is hard to see any real change here except some of the long shots pulling out of the race between now and the Iowa caucuses…

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The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T exit the EU by Oct 31st

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Chart Betfair movements from Betdata.io Do those risking their cash think Boris is bluffing? At 6am this morning it looked as though there was going to be crossover in the Halloween UK exit from the EU betting with more money going on it actually happening than not. Since then the market has been turned back to no – that there won’t be an exit by that date. It would seem, therefore that the Cumming/Johnson line is not being believed by…

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Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

Ruth Davidson’s hard won Scots Tory gains at GE2017 look set to evaporate at an early general election

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Gloomy numbers for Boris as he considers going to the country One thing that is looking increasingly likely at the next election is that a lot more seats are going to change hands than usual. BJohnson’s party will be looking to make gains in Leave areas to offset likely losses to the resurgent LDs and in Scotland the SNP. This has been reinforced from more data from Lord Ashcroft’s Scottish poll featured in the chart above. There was no conventional…

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Is there life after Brexit?

Is there life after Brexit?

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I don’t, unlike Dominic Cummings, think that No Deal is unstoppable. Parliament can stop it if it wants to. But let’s suppose that Mr Johnson succeeds in taking us out of the EU on October 31. Let’s further assume that he calls an election soon afterwards.  His pitch is obvious. “I said I’d get you out and I have. Now we need to charge whole-heartedly into the green fields awaiting us. I want to show you how great life will…

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Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland

Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Farage in Scotland

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While all the focus on today’s Ashcroft Scotland poll has been on growing support for independence the numbers that could have most impact on an early UK general election are in the chart above. How the national party leaders are rated according to the Ashcroft question asking respondents to give a rating from 0 to 100. One of the remarkable things about the GE2010 outcome was that Gordon Brown’s LAB did substantially better in Scotland than in the rest of…

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Local parties and sitting candidates – the big impediment to MP defectors or electoral pacts

Local parties and sitting candidates – the big impediment to MP defectors or electoral pacts

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With a possible General Election only a few months away and ongoing talk of MP defections or constituency pacts there’s been little focus on how this happens in practice. Just imagine for a moment that you want to become an MP and have first gone through the process of being approved by your your national party. Once on that list then constituency parties can choose you and generally you have to fight an internal constituency election in order to become…

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Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

Will Corbyn be Labour leader at the next general election?

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At first glance this market from Ladbrokes seems like an easy way to earn a 40% return as it seems we are headed for an early election with Boris Johnson’s actions indicating that’s where we will end up. An early election gives no realistic way for Corbyn to be removed or stand down as Labour leader. With no honeymoon BJ for the Tories first in Brecon & Radnorshire and ComRes now having the Tories one per cent behind Labour, only…

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Nothing up my sleeve

Nothing up my sleeve

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Boris Johnson has been Prime Minister for under a fortnight and he has immediately put his imprint on government. Boris Johnson is seeking to play hardball with the EU over revising the withdrawal agreement’s terms. He has made no attempt to charm his putative negotiating partners, refusing to talk with them until it is accepted that the backstop is dead. Indeed it is not at all clear who in Brussels currently could negotiate with him, given that the new Commission president has not…

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