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With the Iowa betting markets now being opened a helpful primer on how its caucuses actually work

21/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 347 Comments

Ladbrokes and Betfair have now got markets up on the first big hurdle in WH2020 – the Iowa Caucuses which are scheduled for February 3rd next year. Because of their historical importance and that so many Democrats are contenders this looks set to be a hugely significant day and a very big betting event. The first thing to remember about them is that only a smallish proportion of Democrats and Republicans actually participate. This time for both parties it might…

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The first YouGov for a fortnight sees CON/LAB/LD holding pretty firm

20/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 360 Comments

New @YouGov poll for the Times has little changeCON 30 -1LAB 21 -1LD 20-1BREX 14=GRN+113-14 Aug — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2019 None of the suggested candidates to be temporary PM in a government of national unity are very popular choices with the public:Ken Clarke – 25% good choice for PMHarriet Harman – 19%Jeremy Corbyn – 15%Jo Swinson – 13%Caroline Lucas – 13%https://t.co/ZLU6wG6N8n pic.twitter.com/odT3oThdpB — YouGov (@YouGov) August 20, 2019

By a small margin punters think the next general election will happen before Brexit

20/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 331 Comments

Chart of Betfair Exchange from Betdata.io We’ve discussed the timing of the next general election a fair bit on PB and my guess is that we’ll return to it quite often in the next few weeks. It might not be as easy for a general election to be called as many seem to think. For a general election to take place the Fixed Term Parliaments Act makes it a requirement that two thirds of the entire House of Commons, 433…

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By signing the Good Friday Agreement 21 years ago the UK made any subsequent EU exit harder and more dangerous

20/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 579 Comments

Johnson’s challenge: not triggering off a new round of troubles In a post here last year I highlighted an article by John McTernan, Tony Blair’s former director of political operations, which sought to set out clearly why the Northern Ireland border has been such an issue in the Brexit negotiations. He wrote: “.. there is no concession that can be given on the backstop or, as it should properly be considered, Northern Ireland. The fundamental problem here is not the…

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The Season of Myths

19/8/2019 CycleFree Comments 222 Comments

As we approach witching hour, a handy cut-out and keep guide to some of the more common Brexit myths. Britain will be in good company outside the EU. There are lots and lots of countries outside the EU, mostly surviving, many thriving happily, say Leavers. What are we so afraid of? Well, yes, there are. The majority in fact. (Though not the majority of countries in Europe.) But it’s a false comparison. The number of countries who have been in…

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Corbyn’s big speech – David Herdson’s take

19/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 391 Comments

2/n There were *a lot* of very expensive pledges in his speech:– Free university tuition– Renationalisation of key industries– "Ending austerity" i.e. major increases in day-to-day spending How will this all be paid for? — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 19, 2019 4/n There is a lot of work to be done / explained in Labour's policies – are they up to doing so? Can they explain, simply, what "[We'll] give the workforce a 10% stake in large companies; paying a…

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Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March

19/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 508 Comments

Could it be that the President won’t be the nominee? Over the weekend I’ve placed of bets at effectively about 10/1 that Trump will not be the Republican nominee at WH2020. I’ve done this by laying Trump on the Betfair 2020 nominee market. This has been prompted by two developments. First there have been the public comments of former White House Coms Director, Anthony Scaramucci, who has been infuriating Trump over the last few days with a series of TV…

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What will the UK interest rate be at the end of 2019?

18/8/2019 TSE Comments 536 Comments

I really don’t know much about economics and the intricacies of how and interest rates are set by the Bank of England, looking at this market from Paddy Power is a bit like pinning the tail on the donkey for me. My theory on this market is that is Project Fear turns out to be very close to Project Reality then Sterling will seriously and quickly tank as we head to No Deal. The only time I can remember a…

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