In general almost all the Democratic nominee polling that we’ve seen this year has had 76 year old Joe Biden in the lead. This has been a been underpinned by the findings that he’s seen as the one most likely to beat Trump. Even so it is being suggested that his position is not as strong as it might appear. The growing doubts about the former VP are basically because of ongoing gaffes, his age and little things…
NEW @IpsosMORI /@standardnews POLL Good news and bad news for Boris Johnson. THREAD Good news for Johnson. Cons lead by 10pts Headline voting intention (likely voters) Conservatives 34%Labour 24%Lib Dem 20%Brexit Party 9%Green 6%SNP 4Others 4% Cons were +2 in June* — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) August 1, 2019 New @IpsosMORI / @standardnews Satisfaction with Jo Swinson's performance as Lib Dem leader Satisfied 35% (+7)Dissatisfied 40% (+12)Don't know 25% (-19)Net -5 (-5) 79% of Lib Dem supporters satisfied. Changes from July….
Today’s YouGov: Con 32%= LD 23+4 Lab 21-2 BXP 14= There is a new YouGov poll in the Times this morning which is the first one to have taken place since the Lib Dems at their conference voted to stop Brexit even without a referendum. The figures are above and will give a lot of reassurance to the new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, with what has been widely criticised as a massive gamble in terms of policy. It has however got…
First mistake: Denying it was a press event when it was blindingly obvious it was Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
It was 3 years ago that YouGov began issuing leader favourability ratings a move that followed suggestions from me. I’ve long been in the leader ratings matter much more than voting intention numbers camp and the format I most like is when poll samples are asked whether they favour a particular political leader or not. The numbers for Johnson speak for themselves and the biggest electoral pointer, surely, is how Corbyn is currently perceived. That 70% view the LAB leader…
What happened when MPs took back control Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target. Then MPs moved to take control of the Commons agenda allowing the Benn bill to go through – a measure designed to…
Chart via the betdata.io The favourite month has gone from September to October to November to December and now 2020 For decades or as long as I have been political betting one of the characteristics of political gamblers is that they overstate the chances of an early General Election being called. Somehow it is always easier to make the case in your own head that one is going to happen soon than that it probably won’t. So over the past…
When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory. Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa María and will be back in the UK…