A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would appear very odd

A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would appear very odd

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From our Times Labour party members poll in July. Proportion who think x would hake a good leader of the Labour party:Keir Starmer – 68%John McDonnell – 64% Emily Thornberry – 59%Angela Rayner – 41%Tom Watson – 37% ?RLB – 34%Jess Phillips – 33% Laura Pidcock – 31% ? — Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) December 13, 2019 The above is from the YouGov Labour members’ poll in July and shows how Starmer was regarded then by the LAB membershp. However there’s…

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UPDATED: Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 35% chance in the Corbyn successor betting

UPDATED: Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 35% chance in the Corbyn successor betting

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>Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange market Former favourite Keir Starmer slips badly as the betting hots up The chart shows the dramatic changes in the next LAB leader betting following LAB’s GE19 electoral defeat and the realisation that they look set to be faced with a Johnson big majority government for possibly the next five years. In the immediate aftermath of the result the money piled on Starmer but now that has sharply reversed with Rebecca London-Bailey making the running….

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Labour’s Delusions

Labour’s Delusions

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“It takes 20 years to build a reputation and 5 minutes to ruin it.” Buffet’s saying has been one which many in finance have had cause to ponder in recent years. Turned round, it applies to political parties: “a toxic reputation takes 5 minutes to develop, 20 years to shake off.” Consider how long it’s taken the Tories to get past (if they have) the “nasty party” tag. From its development in the 1980s, it was 18 years before the…

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Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

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It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons. The reason is clear. Even though the party increased its vote share by 4% it saw a reduction in its seat numbers and there is a very small pool from which the new leader can emerge. The current fourth…

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Labour’s last chance?

Labour’s last chance?

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You can only play with fire for so long before being burned Labour is rather fortunate. Rather than looking on at a mere disaster, its members and supporters could have been witness to the electorate having smote the ruin of a once-great party unto the dust. Despite Boris Johnson having led the Tories to their highest vote share since 1979 – and their sixth successive increase in share, the last three in government – there was surely the potential to…

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What Next for the Parties?

What Next for the Parties?

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The Tories It is quite a victory. 3 years after a humiliating withdrawal from his first attempt at the Tory leadership, Boris has the largest Tory majority since Thatcher, the sort May so wanted and far larger than Cameron ever managed. How sweet must he be feeling today. It also raises the very real possibility of the Tories winning the next GE; a 78-seat deficit is hard for an opposition party to overcome in one bound. So Boris now has…

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Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

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Ladbrokes have her at 7/1 The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader. The big problem that Jo faced during the campaign was that almost whenever she appeared on the big TV set pieces such as the Question Time special or Andrew Neil she was questioned about her time as a minister in the coalition. Inevitably she was always…

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