As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

As Johnson edges towards to the 11pm Brexit deadline the betting money’s still on a pre-Brexit general election

Comments 466 Comments

Chart of Betfair movements from betdata.io On a day when so much seems to be changing on a Brexit dale there has not been as much betting movement as you might have thought. Still the view is that Brexit’s not going to happen immediately and not before a new general election. Tonight is just the first hurdle. If there is a draft deal that will have to be agreed by the EU27 at their meeting later in the week. And…

Read More Read More

“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

“Honouring” the referendum should apply to not just to the outcome but what the official Leave campaign said

Comments 837 Comments

They were also promising this. We’ve got the monstrosity of Settled Status instead. pic.twitter.com/41dNhKvENw — Catherine Redmond?#People’sVote #FBPE????? (@Redmo8Catherine) October 13, 2019 Things are different now the country’s being led by Cummings/Johnson Lots of talk at moment about “honouring the Referendum”. Fair enough. Those who espouse that seem to look to the result itself rather than the promises and assertions made my the official Leave campaign in the run up to the June 23rd 2016 vote. It was harder to…

Read More Read More

With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

With 16 days to go punters make it just a 22% chance that UK will leave the EU by the end of the month

Comments 612 Comments

Chart of movements on the Betfair exchange from betdata.io The big news for those betting on whether there will be an exit from the EU this month within the Article 50 deadline is that the market rates the chances of a deal this week as being less likely. What we should read into that is hard to say. The EU has a long history of things going right to the wire and there must be just a possibility that something…

Read More Read More

Today’s Top Tip for Remainers – if there’s a 2nd Referendum demand strict voter photo ID

Today’s Top Tip for Remainers – if there’s a 2nd Referendum demand strict voter photo ID

Comments 519 Comments

At a constituency level there is a strong linear relationship between estimated Leave vote and not having a passport. pic.twitter.com/VxRTv6zCuS — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) October 13, 2019 And driving licences by age There’s a case for arguing that the section of the population who’d have most problems with proposed voter ID laws are the elderly who are much less likely to have a passport and/or a driving licence. Given that they were much more likely to vote Leave in june…

Read More Read More

Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

Ladbrokes make it 6/4 that there’ll be another Brexit referendum before the end of next year

Comments 608 Comments

And 4/1 that Remain would win Given how difficult Johnson has had in winning votes in the House of Commons this morning’s Queen’s Speech had a touch a fantasy about it. His Government is in a minority and thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliament Act he is unable to call a general election to ameliorate the situation. So having the monarch with all the ceremonial trappings listing the legislative plans was a bit it strange given there are simply not the…

Read More Read More

By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner

By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner

Comments 532 Comments

Ladbrokes And we could see moves for a confirmatory referendum The phrase from the mid-1960s originated by the then LAB general election winner and PM, Harold Wilson that “a week is a long time in politics” has continued to have resonance over the decades. No doubt we will he hear references to it this week when so much is on the agenda. There are so many unknowns. Will what was agreed between the UK and Irish PMs at the meeting…

Read More Read More

The Tyranny of Low Expectations

The Tyranny of Low Expectations

Comments 358 Comments

It is generally a good idea, when facing severe criticism from an inquiry, to concede with as much good grace as possible, to keep your immediate thoughts about the idiocy of the judge to yourself and not to try and justify the behaviour which has been criticised. No good will come of it: you will look like someone paying lip service to the findings who really thinks you’ve done nothing wrong. It is advice which the Metropolitan Police singularly failed…

Read More Read More

Six of the top seven in the betting on Corbyn’s successor are women

Six of the top seven in the betting on Corbyn’s successor are women

Comments 275 Comments

Chart of Betfair exchange prices from betdata.io How will leadership hopefuls vote on the key Commons brexit moves? With Corbyn’s announcement that he’ll step down if he fails to lead LAB to victory in the general election there’s renewed interest in the betting on who will be the successor. We could be only a few months from a contest. Two factors stand out. Firstly there’s a widespread view within the movement, including from the boss of UNITE, that LAB needs…

Read More Read More