Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

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https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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Heading for Labour minority government?

Heading for Labour minority government?

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At the time of writing, the Betfair odds for a Labour minority government after the expected election are 3.5 (7-2). After the Tory conference there should be a further Tory bounce, making the odds perhaps 3-1. This is, I think, too long. Here’s why. It’s generally expected and evidenced by numerous polls that the Conservatives will lose seats in Scotland to the SNP and to the Lib Dems in the south. They hope that these losses will be compensated for…

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Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

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Team Cummings-Johnson working hard for Jo Swinson’s party Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs. This is based on Opinium polls which very helpfully provide cross tabs for what those sampled did at the last election broken down into their referendum choice. The trend is such that former CON voters could be rivalling LAB-LD…

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An interim government would need more than just a PM

An interim government would need more than just a PM

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There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…

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Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

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How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

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How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

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A guest slot from Fishing Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that the Democrats would be able to find an excuse to impeach Trump if they gained control of the House in 2018 for that reason, 2019 would be the peak year of danger for Trump in this respect but I expected that the Senate would acquit, because of its likely Republican majority following the Midterms. Given…

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The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011

The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011

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We are used to American presidents dominating their country’s politics.  “Commander in chief” can be understood in more than one way, given how the role has developed. It was not always thus. For most of the nineteenth century, American presidents were chiefly distinctive for their lack of distinction. In the sixty year period between Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt, only Abraham Lincoln really stood out for his achievements. Taken as a group, they were strikingly anonymous.   Taking the very broadest…

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A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

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The Betfair 69% on it taking place this year looks a decent bet A leading SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, has told the BBC that there could be a confidence vote in Johnson as early as next week. If this happens, given the current Commons numbers, Johnson would almost certainly lose and then, under the FTPA, there would a fortnight under which an alternative government could be formed and if not a general election would be triggered. From what I can…

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