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How a CON majority moved from a 31% chance to victory – the GE2019 betting timeline

22/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Before we move on from looking at GE19 I thought it might be useful, as with previous big political events like the referendum, to put up the betting chart. As can be seen shortly after Johnson became CON leader and PM Betfair punters rated the chances of the Tories securing an overall majority at just a 31% chance. As the betdata.io chart of the biggest Betfair GE2019 market shows that rose rose rose till 10pm on December 12th when the…

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BMG finds just 2% of voters back Long-Bailey for LAB leader with 61% saying they haven’t heard of her’

22/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And there’s little support for Corbyn’s claim to have “won the argument” The main poll this weekend is by BMG for the Independent which looks at both the policy profile that would command support and views of possible replacements for two-time loser, Corbyn who led his party to its worst general election since 1935. This, of course, is a general poll which is representative of the electorate as a whole and not Labour’s seleorate which will decide who the new…

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A Punters History of the Labour Contest. From Callaghan to Corbyn

21/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

As I wrote in the run-up to the general election, political betting markets can be lucrative ones for punters. One of the so-called ‘iron laws’ of Conservative leadership contests is that the front runner does not win it. In 2019, Boris Johnson finally put the myth to bed. Labour on the other hand have a different past, much more content to back the front runner and at time they have proved to be coronations rather than contests. 2019 has the…

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Brexit’s Hotel California

21/12/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

This time next year, we’ll be in a very familiar place They have learned nothing and forgotten nothing. Originally was said of the Bourbon monarchy after its restoration, it’s equally true of the EU Commission today which seems intent on repeating all its own mistakes for lack of comprehension that they are, in fact, mistakes. Perhaps this might be because one of the easiest ways to turn a blind eye to existential threats is to convince yourself that the reasons…

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The Mandate

20/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Conservatives are triumphant. Labour have been smashed, the Lib Dems have actually regressed. The Tories may not have managed a landslide in the technical sense of getting a majority of 100, but they weren’t far away and their lead of 160 over the second-placed party is very handy indeed. They will be as dominant in Parliament as the Conservatives were in the 1987 Parliament or the Labour party was after the 2005 election. The Conservatives will take this as…

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After the latest Democratic debate watch Klobuchar

20/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Amy Klobuchar won the debate, writes @mattklewis https://t.co/gycj3wPEWj — The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) December 20, 2019 The 59 year old from Minnesota should now get some traction Overnight we have had the the December democratic debate in the long process to choose the party’s nominee for next November’s White House election. The field is getting much smaller and on the debate stage in Los Angeles there were just seven which made it a lot more manageable and better television. There…

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Labour’s GE2019 post mortem

19/12/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Proverbial wisdom tells us that success has many fathers, while failure is an orphan. It’s a saying that appears to have by-passed the Labour party at least, since their general response to the election has been to hurl fistfuls of paternity tests at each other in a way that would send Jeremy Kyle off for a cold shower and a lie down. It’s been an analytically productive grand bun fight at least. While the pollsters are still nursing their hangovers,…

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Trump’s impeachment has almost no impact on the WH2020 betting – he’s still an evens chance to win

19/12/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

And it might not even get to the Senate The betdata/io chart shows the latest WH2020 betting and as can be seen Trump remains the evens favourite to secure re-election in November next year. The overnight apparently dramatic news that this is only the third time in US history that the House of Representatives has voted in this way was widely anticipated and, of course, only the Senate can remove him from office. The upper house would require a two…

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